2024, What Are You Thinking?

The state of the next presidential election

Credit: Thomas Pajot

What are we to make of the looming 2024 presidential election?

We were eager to throw the question out to all of you this week, because we love how Steady has become a place for thoughtful discourse, and, frankly, we’re curious for your impressions. As always, please engage in respectful dialogue as we welcome a diversity of opinions. 

We acknowledge upfront that the election is a long, long, long way away. It's impossible to predict what will happen during more than a year of campaigning and the outside news events that will shape the political, economic, and social climate at election time. However, the gravity of this particular election — in which the health and resilience of our democratic republic are at stake — means that it is not premature to consider its impact. 

Let’s start by comparing the two likely candidates, even if polls suggest many voters would prefer other options. 

We have written extensively here about Trump, so we will try to be succinct. His time in office was one of toxic divisiveness, two impeachments, and a host of other outrages. He tried to destroy American democracy by preventing a peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 election. He faces dozens of criminal charges around his alleged committal of those crimes and others. Despite all of this baggage, he is to date the runaway favorite candidate of Republican primary voters.

Then there’s Joe Biden, whose approval ratings have been well below the levels that lead to confidence in reelection. 

Biden’s supporters argue that he has been a very effective president, based on the standards by which presidents are usually judged.

The United States has emerged from the chaos of the pandemic with one of the most robust economies in the world. Unemployment is low, and inflation is coming down. The numbers are impressive. 

Biden passed multiple major pieces of legislation while Democrats held the House during the first two years of his term. This includes the most significant climate law in American history, which seems to be outperforming expectations. Even though Democrats lost the House in the 2022 midterm elections, those results were nothing like the so-called “red wave” that Republicans seemed to expect and Democrats feared. That outcome is also generally considered to be a plus for Biden.

On the world stage, our allies are far more unified than they were under the previous administration. This alignment includes a collective rebuffing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although Ukrainian advances in that war have slowed, if not stalled — which could change the dynamics for Biden (and is a topic for a different column). But we are also more engaged in Asia, as a recent summit with Japan and South Korea suggests. Thus at least fairly good marks for Biden on foreign policy, albeit with some potential storm clouds. 

So what to make of Biden’s low approval numbers? A lot of it is our unusually deep national partisan divide. A significant percentage of the electorate will never like Biden simply because he’s a Democrat. But that’s not enough to deny him reelection. Rather, it seems there is unease about Biden among a number of voters in his own party, as well as persuadable independents and those Republican voters who despise Trump. 

One reason is Biden’s age. He was already the oldest president in American history when he took office, and now he’s running for a second term. There’s a saying that “age is just a number,” and it’s true that the mindset with which people approach aging can make a big difference. But still, we are all mortal, and our bodies fail in numerous ways, especially as we age. And listening to Biden talk and watching his movements, it’s undeniable that he is older. Now, Republicans want to infer that his mental acuity is failing. There is no convincing evidence of that. But age is a legitimate concern when considering Biden’s reelection chances. 

Another favorite line of attack on Biden by Republicans and their media echo chambers has centered on his only living son, Hunter. Hunter’s story of personal struggles with substance abuse are well documented. And it is clear that some of his business dealings leveraged his father’s political identity. Hunter also faces criminal charges in federal court. While that story appeared to be fading away with a plea deal, the latter fell apart, and Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to continue the investigation. There has been no credible evidence to date that President Biden has done anything illegal. And maybe Biden’s unconditional love for his struggling son could even resonate with voters. But will it create an effective line of attack on Biden’s judgment? Whatever happens, make no mistake that this is a political headache that the president’s campaign wishes would go away. Instead, odds are it won’t — and that it could get worse. 

Then there is the question of Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris. This role is particularly important given Biden’s advanced age. Republicans will suggest that a vote for President Biden is likely a vote for a potential President Harris. Will this be a winning argument? As the first woman, first Black person, and first Asian person to be vice president, Harris has been and continues to be judged by a different set of criteria than her predecessors. And it is also true that she was considered a rising star in the party when she joined Biden on the ticket. But she has received (fairly or unfairly) mixed reviews, including from members of her own party, in her tenure as vice president. She is taking on a higher profile in the 2024 campaign, including recently tussling with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on race. How do you think her role will play out?

As we head into 2024, other political currents are swirling that are related to the candidates but also bigger than them — such as abortion. We saw earlier this month, in an odd August election in Ohio, that the issue continues to drive a lot of energy and voters to the polls, and not in ways beneficial to Republicans. Ohio, once considered a swing state but which has been trending to the right, voted overwhelmingly in support of a ballot measure that was ultimately about abortion rights. It wasn’t even close. This result echoed what we saw in other elections, especially in the 2022 midterms. 

It doesn’t look like voters have forgotten about what the Supreme Court did. It’s hard when the right you had to manage your own body and reproductive health is suddenly rescinded. 

Then there’s that pesky issue of our democracy. We saw many purveyors of the “Big Lie” defeated in 2022. Trump himself was at his lowest popularity after January 6. Now he is going to trial for his role in trying to flout the Constitution and destroy democracy, even as Republicans in multiple states double down on making voting more difficult. Will this issue resonate with voters again? 

There are numerous other issues to consider: the country’s shifting demographics, immigration policy, fears of rising crime, the health of our planet, and on and on. 

There are also questions about the media environment in which this election will play out. How will the election be covered by the mainstream press? Are the highlights of Biden’s presidency being crowded out by wall-to-wall Trump coverage? In the press, outrage tends to sell. Also, there is the very nature of news and how it’s delivered. As network and cable news operations continue to shrink, what will be the role of social media? Will we see artificial intelligence have an effect?

We are eager to hear your thoughts in the comments section. We also have included a poll with a simple yes-or-no question, although we understand your answers might be complicated (another reason to join the comments).

Thanks, as always, for being part of the Steady community.

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