The Shutdown That Really Means Pay Up

First poll shows Americans blame Republicans

Credit: Getty Images

The reports I’m seeing make all this government shutdown business seem so complicated. But it’s not, in its simplest and most direct terms. This fight boils down to one thing: your money.

Republicans want to use your money for tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and more border control agents — among other things. Democrats, seizing a rare political opportunity, are trying to claw some money back for millions of people who depend on health care coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare.

This is not some penny ante political fight, but a battle over potentially very big increases in insurance premiums for tens of millions of people. We here at Steady are beholden to no one, especially Donald Trump. So we’re not playing the blame game, or the political-ultimatum-to-withhold-money-from-blue-states game or even the threat-of-mass-firing-of-federal-workers-game coming from the White House.

We want to explain this very big deal in the simplest of terms.

The ACA provides subsidies to each state to defray the cost of health insurance. These subsidies were expanded and extended by President Joe Biden during the pandemic, but will expire at the end of 2025. Since 2021, the subsidy expansion has helped to cut premiums, causing enrollment to swell from 11 million people to 24 million.

If the subsidies aren’t extended permanently or even temporarily — something Republicans have so far objected to — health insurance premiums will increase by an average of 114%, and four million enrollees will be forced to opt out because they will no longer be able to afford it, according to the non-partisan health policy research group, Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).

The New York Times calculated that a 55-year-old couple making $85,000 a year would see their premiums triple to $24,535 annually. People living in red states will be disproportionately affected, with those in Texas being the most vulnerable. More than a million Texans will lose coverage, according to KFF.

Democrats would say Trump’s big beautiful bill is anything but, because it will push 7.8 million Americans off of Medicaid, according to the Congressional Budget Office. They might have gone to the ACA marketplace to find affordable insurance, but it will no longer be affordable if the subsidies are gone.

As you might imagine, The Wall Street Journal has a different take. Its editorial board suggests that Democrats are “manufacturing a panic” over the subsidies, but any politician worth his or her salt recognizes what any increase in premiums would mean before the midterm elections.

So, while it may feel like déjà vu all over again, this government shutdown is different — far different even from the other three Trump presided over, because the outcome could mean the reversal of a trend that has meant more Americans are insured than ever before.

Democrats haven’t had much in the way of leverage these past nine months. But this shutdown is affording them some. At midnight on October 1 the lack of a federal budget triggered a partial government shutdown. Congress and the White House have not been able to finalize the 2024 spending bills, so they need (yet another) continuing resolution to keep the government funded.

Any continuing resolution (CR) needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. With a 53-seat majority, Republicans need Democratic votes. Back in March, the Democrats capitulated and allowed the CR to pass. Not this time.

Dems have a laundry list of things they could ask for in exchange for passing the CR and ending the shutdown. But they have homed in on one issue that has succeeded in the past: affordable health care coverage.

In 2018, in the middle of Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats won 41 House seats and regained the majority. They essentially ran on one issue: extending Obamacare subsidies. In case anyone thinks seven years has changed Americans’ minds about the program, it has not. According to a Washington Post flash poll out Wednesday, 71% say ACA subsidies should be extended.

As of this writing, we are only on day two of the shutdown, but according to that Post poll, respondents blame Trump and the Republicans (47%) over the Democrats (30%). Twenty-three percent aren’t sure whom to blame, though we know that as people learn more about Trump’s actions, the more his approval ratings have suffered.

With the 2026 midterms coming up, Democrats are holding the Republicans’ feet to the political fire, with a reasonable hope of success. It is risky to allow millions to lose health insurance and force millions more to swallow a significant premium increase to keep it, months before one of the most important congressional elections in U.S. history — especially if the Republicans can’t convincingly point fingers at the Democrats.

A big problem for Republicans is that the ACA is a hugely popular and successful program, though Trump has, for years, maligned it. He has also repeatedly promised to “fix” it, and repeatedly failed to offer anything to do so.

During the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump famously said, “I have a concept of a plan… in the not too distant future.” Not sure what Trump considers the “not too distant future.” The debate was 13 months ago.

Another issue is that the powerful and monied health insurance industry is in full panic mode. If the ACA subsidies aren’t extended, the industry could lose millions of customers and billions in revenue. Their lobbyists are busy talking to both sides of the aisle, while their PR teams are launching seven-figure advertising campaigns.

As with everything in Trump’s orbit, normal rules do not apply. What has worked with previous shutdowns may not move the needle this time. But for the first time since January 20, Democrats have a chance to get something they want, which also happens to be something most Americans also want.

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Stay Steady,
Dan