The Last Woman Standing

Credit: Getty Images

There’s an old expression in boxing, a “slugger’s chance.” It means an underdog is given an outside chance to win if the fighter has a reputation for being an especially heavy puncher. I’ve been saying since Nikki Haley first got into the race for the Republican presidential nomination that she had a slugger’s chance. With Haley’s bid for an upset fading but not yet finished, let’s take a look at whether she still has even that chance. The so-called smart money has said from the start that there is no way she can defeat Donald Trump. 

First, Haley finished a distant second to the former president in the Iowa caucuses. Then she finished a not quite-so-distant second in the New Hampshire primary. But her ability to raise money and her capacity to get under Donald Trump’s skin earned her increased attention — and left her the last challenger in the race.

Haley is the unexpected last woman standing of the 12 original challengers to Trump for the nomination. She has outlasted and outraised a lot of men with higher profiles and longer resumes. Although she did lose the New Hampshire primary, she did so by a smaller margin (11 points) than predicted. According to exit polls there, she appeals to educated independents and moderates who think temperament is important. 

One reason for her better-than-predicted showing was her fundraising prowess. Haley’s super PAC raised more money, $50.1 million, in the second half of last year than Trump’s, which raised $46 million. Some big-money Republicans who despise Donald Trump, like Charles Koch, are backing her. And the money hasn’t dried up. According to Bloomberg News, a group of Wall Street billionaires is still all-in on Haley. They’re hosting a fundraiser for her tonight in New York with ticket prices topping $30,000 a plate. It might be a bit of throwing good money after bad, but it is also a thump at Trump.

Trump’s acceptance speech after the Iowa caucuses had a very different tenor than his speech after winning in New Hampshire. In Iowa, he delivered a unifying message befitting a front-runner who just had a decisive win. A week later in New Hampshire, he was angry and petulant. He pointedly went after Haley and threatened that anyone who contributes to her campaign “will be permanently banned from the MAGA camp.” 

That brought this response on X from Clifford Asness, one of the billionaires backing Haley:

At a rally in South Carolina the day after that speech, Haley got my attention with this: “Donald Trump got out there and just threw a temper tantrum. He pitched a fit. He was insulting. He was doing what he does. But I know that’s what he does when he’s insecure. I know that’s what he does when he is threatened. And he should feel threatened without a doubt.” Exclamation point. Is she willing to keep this up? And if so, for how long?

Trump’s bullying tactics are nothing new … talk to anyone who has run against him or defied his edicts. But when his adversary is a woman, his attacks take on a menacing, misogynistic tone … just ask Hillary Clinton, Megyn Kelly, Liz Cheney, or E. Jean Carroll. Trump’s new degrading nickname for Haley is “birdbrain,” not even a thinly veiled jab accusing her of being an unintelligent woman. “He doesn’t like strong and persistent women,” wrote Dan Balz of The Washington Post. “He is especially bothered by those who don’t pay him utmost respect and deference. He lashes out — and sometimes pays a price.” 

Haley is now actively disrespecting him. After the verdict in the Carroll defamation trial, she wrote on X:

Haley’s appeal is that she is not Donald Trump, for all the obvious reasons. But those moderates and independents looking for an alternative to his policy positions need to dig a bit deeper into Haley’s record. She is no moderate, on abortion, on immigration, on climate change, on race.

Forty percent of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire said they preferred someone else to Trump. Haley would like to be that someone. But she needs to show momentum in her home state’s primary in South Carolina. She says she will stay in as long as she can improve upon her showing in New Hampshire. The polls don’t look good for her. But no doubt she has, as the Post wrote, “found a soft spot in Trump’s armor. She seems to relish the opportunity to torment him. That could make the next few weeks much more interesting than anyone might have expected only a few days ago — if she keeps it up.” 

But if and when the billionaires decide it’s over, Haley’s campaign is likely to fold.

So job one for her now is to convince wealthy donors that she still has a slugger’s chance.   

---

The Steady newsletter is supported by the Steady community. Please consider subscribing if you aren’t already a member.