Staring Into War

Perilous...
Tragic...
Combustible...
Unknowable....

War comes once again to Europe. Will it be a set of skirmishes or a major assault? Will Putin nibble or go all in? What will be the response? Will it simmer or explode?

What shape it will take, what twists will come, and how and when it may end, is beyond the ability of any one to predict - including the lead actors.

One of the only certainties of war is that there is no certainty, other than it is hell and leaves destructive sadness in its wake.

There are echoes of the past, the reverberations of blood spilled across the continent... of Cold Wars... and proxy fights... of staring into the abyss of escalation and detente...

There is no shortage of analysis, and much of it is prescient and thoughtful. This is a region that has long been studied and analyzed. Putin is a well-known adversary, regardless of how the previous president viewed him. It seems like American intelligence is locked in. But there will be surprises. There always are.  

Beware of the armchair generals... it is easier to opine when you are not on the battlefield and the acuity of your predictions will not be measured in lives lost. 

But there is something else this time around, something new that I have never seen before on the scale we are witnessing. There are many in this nation, cheered on by powerful media voices, who seem more aligned with a dangerous foe to America and a peaceful world order than they are with our own leadership.  

Our divisions are a weakness that our enemies eagerly exploit. Whether willingly or not, we do their bidding with our bickering. To reduce the world order to shortsighted political calculations is to undermine our own national security. 

These are dangerous straits, and we should all pray for a steady hand at the helm of our ship of state. There can be no confusion that we are on the side of freedom of sovereign nations to choose their own identity. 

We can debate how we got here, but now is not the time to waver. That does not mean we ourselves should enter the conflict. The steps ahead must be judged with a full assessment of our own national and strategic interests. But to puppet the rhetoric of the Kremlin will hurt not only those facing the Russian forces in central Europe, but all who wish for a world of justice and stability. 

Steady.