So Long Sinema?

A senator leaves her party

Photo: Kent Nishimura

It was only a few days ago that Democrats were cheering Raphael Warnock’s big win in the Georgia Senate race. Now the party wakes up this Friday morning to ... Kyrsten Sinema. 

The breaking news is that Sinema, who has long been a thorn in the side of Senate Democrats with her inscrutable demands and frustrating voting patterns, is leaving the party. She says she’s not becoming a Republican but an “ independent.”  What exactly that means remains to be seen. 

Suddenly the 51-49 Democratic majority in the Senate looks a little different, but how different? The majority already included two independents who caucus with the party and are reliable votes — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. Will Sinema be in that mold? Her tenure thus far suggests she will be much more problematic for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. But how much? 

Sinema says this is all about her being an independent-minded moderate who feels out of place in either party because they are being pulled to the extremes. But as many are already noting, this might be a lot more about trying to secure a path to reelection in 2024. It was almost certain that Sinema would face a primary challenger if she had remained a Democrat. The young Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego, who served in the Marines in the Iraq War, has made many statements that suggest he will run.  

In the recent midterms, Democrats won big in Arizona, including Senator Mark Kelly, who won by nearly five points. Had Kelly lost or barely hung on, Sinema could have made the case that she would be the only Democrat who could win in 2024. That case is a lot harder to make now. The politics of the state are clearly shifting. Running as an independent allows her to skip a primary. 

That brings up the question of what might happen in the general election. Would she split the vote and deliver the seat to a Republican? Would her candidacy falter, especially if Gallego runs and attracts enthusiasm from young and minority voters? These are the questions that will be debated by political strategists over the next two years. 

In the meantime, it is useful to pull out a bit and ask what insights these developments give to our current political era. There was a time when the ranks of Senate Democrats were full of people like Sinema. They were difficult to wrangle, liked to position themselves as moderates, and often frustrated party leaders. Just think back to the sausage making over Obamacare. 

But let’s use Senator Warnock now as a comparison. He is not a firebrand in the way he speaks. He is willing to work across the aisle, a fact he liked to highlight during his recent campaign. But he is also not apologetic about his progressive beliefs. He is a pragmatic progressive. And he won in a state where Republicans otherwise did very well in 2022. Some of that was clearly his opponent, but it would do Warnock a grave disservice to diminish his political skills. 

There are other senators like him, especially among the younger cohort in the caucus. There is a growing determination and progressive energy among Senate Democrats. Just look at how much they were able to accomplish in the last Congress with the slimmest majority possible. Sinema seems anachronistic, especially coming from a state trending blue like Arizona. Joe Manchin also seems cut from that mold, but he is representing West Virginia, a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020. 

It is pretty clear that Manchin is the only person who could win in West Virginia as a Democrat these days. Perhaps Sinema told herself that was the case for her in Arizona. The election results tell a different story. 

Sinema has gotten a lot of criticism from her constituents, and not only for her votes. She is seen as out of touch, providing few opportunities for public engagement. And she is seen as close to lobbyists and business interests. Back in 2018, Democratic activists worked tirelessly for her election and gave lots of money to her campaign. This feeling of betrayal will shape not only her future but the vetting of future candidates. 

One suspects that going forward, Democrats will be looking for a lot more Warnocks and a lot fewer Sinemas. Even in purple states. Maybe especially in purple states. 

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