Don’t Panic
We all have to understand the assignment
Waking up to The New York Times headline: “State of the Race: A Dead Heat With 8 Weeks to Go” is at the very least sobering, but by no means conclusive. It may even be a good thing.
To my Steady friends, the name of our newsletter says it all. We need to stay steady. The 2024 presidential election was always going to be tick-tight. The Democrats were never going to “Walz” into the White House (pun intended), though he helps. You know what else helps? Having motivated supporters. A close poll can do a lot to activate the bench sitters. There is no room for even an ounce of complacency between now and November 5.
Since Barack Obama’s huge victory in 2008, the American electorate has become more polarized and calcified than ever before. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 49% of registered voters are or lean Democrat, while 48% are or lean Republican. These numbers trend with what we have seen in the voting booth. In 2016, Donald Trump won by just 70,000 votes in the swing states that decided the election. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory margin was even smaller. There is no reason to think 2024 will be any different in terms of winning margins.
Along with shrinking margins, the number of undecided voters making their choice during the last two weeks of the campaign has also decreased. Exit polls in 2016 put the number at 15%. In 2020, it was around 6%. At this point, with two months to go, about 15% are still undecided, of which three-quarters say they do have a preference. That leaves just 3% in the “don’t know” category. In other words, a very small number of voters in swing states will decide this. If you truly “don’t know” at this point, we need to talk.
That is a lot of numbers to throw at you … but know that heading into the final stretch of the campaign, I’d rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. She has more room to move the needle. He has barely any.
For one, an anti-MAGA majority exists, even in swing states. The 2022 midterm elections proved this. Traditionally, midterms break hard for the party not in power. There was every reason to believe that would be the case in November 2022, with inflation high and Biden’s popularity low. Ultimately, Republicans, who predicted a “red wave,” made only modest gains and lost several key races. The reason: A majority of Americans were determined to stop MAGA.
Two, love him or hate him, Trump is a known commodity. Need I remind you that he has been running for president for nine years? Harris is comparatively a blank slate. More than a quarter of voters told The New York Times they want to know more about her. Many in that block of voters are from groups Harris has made gains with: younger voters, voters of color, and independent votes. The poll showed these voters are more eager to hear about her plans for the future than they are to hear from Trump.
Three, the Harris/Walz campaign is better organized and more disciplined, and Harris is a better candidate — on paper and in real life. She has energy and is relatable. And her room for growth well outpaces his. Remember, it need only be a point or two. She has a plan that appeals to the center. Whereas Donald Trump doesn’t seem to have any plan at all. At Tuesday night’s debate, Harris will have the opportunity to continue to tell her story and expand on her ideas for the country. By being herself, she can be the “normal” candidate. More voters may be looking for change, but change within the bounds of what has been considered normal.
The other day, our friends at Pod Save America reminded me of an adage attributed to Ben Wikler, the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. In a play on an election truism, he said a “race is within the margin of effort.”
Effort.
Maximum effort is what it will take to keep Trump out of the White House and save democracy as we have known it. Every door knocked, every phone called, every text sent, every dollar given, every hour volunteered can make a difference. So will registering to vote and getting to the polls.
In a close race, good luck favors those who care the most and work the hardest.
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Stay Steady,
Dan
Vote! Vote like your future depends on it. Vote like the Constitution depends on it. Vote like the Bill of Rights depends on it. Vote like the Rule of Law depends on it. Vote like democracy depends on it. Vote like the Republic depends on it. Vote like our freedom depends on it. Because it does. VOTE BLUE!
Understand the assignment: Vote. And bring your friends. We cannot afford to have anyone sit this one out. We know what happened to Hillary - people thought it was a done deal. Polls don't vote.