Thank you Dan and Elliot, for so clearly stating the threats, problems, and possible solutions. Your final paragraph: 'We are a small world. There is no isolation. Cooperation, resilience, and an ability to think globally — in terms of the economy, the environment, and the military — will be required to survive.' Gives us a roadmap to follow. But it will take great acumen, intelligence, and experience to carry out. That leaves out all MAGA politicians and several inexperienced would-be leaders.
I like the emphasis on the long-term planning in our relationships; we must consider every possible scenario we can in an effort to be able to keep all of us (in the world) safe and thriving.
I’ve visited China three times in the past seven years and they are a kind people, graceful and deliberate. They possess a very skilled workforce, have an abundance of technology and are a top five player in the world economy. However, let’s not look at China and other countries as the enemy but merely competitors for their place on the worlds stage of success.
Prior to my retirement form the software industry, we often referred to other companies in our industry that were also seeking success as the coopetition; competitors that we cooperated with as there were actually times where the solution was comprised of some of our software and some of theirs. This is a good way to view China as we economically need one another. Sure, we want to be #1 on the world stage, and so does China. But we should not wish them any ill will or wish them to fail as competition makes us all better. Michael Jordan never prayed that Isiah Thomas would sprain his ankle before a game. That would be too easy. Having to play one another made them both better players.
We certainly will all benefit from peaceful relationships with other countries based on coopetition.
"China’s so-called Belt and Road Initiative has poured billions of dollars into infrastructure projects with hopes of leveraging its economic power to expand its influence...."
"China [is] engaging in provocative military exercises that show off its modernized and formidable armed forces."
Realistically, looked at from a global perspective, these statements could just as well apply to the U.S. But because it's "us," we tend to resent such assertions. Nevertheless, in the eyes of the world, the 800+ U.S. military bases, for instance, merely represent the U.S. flexing its muscles of power, with an eye to intimidation.
Dan and Elliot's last statement is the real takeaway, leaving out the mention of the military---we're all in this together, and either we'll learn to cooperate, minus the saber rattling, or we will doom our species, no matter which artificial boundary we live within.
The common prognosis that China is an enemy and needs to be treated that way is exactly the wrong way for us to be thinking. We are competitors on the world stage and are interdependent economically. China is fiercely focused on educating its population, which is working for they realize that the smartest will inherit the spoils. That is also evident in their focus on "full steam ahead" on AI, while we are thinking that we should take it a bit slower, for fear of its negative aspects. Being behind in that technology is not an option. He who lags will pay a hefty price of being "also rans."
While touring China, just before the pandemic, we saw millions of sapling trees planted on every available scrap of land not used for farming or buildings. They are not unaware of the climate disaster that is looming and along with trees they have installed massive solar and wind farms.
Sophisticated diplomacy is what we need at this juncture. They need us and we need them and that's a good starting point.
In natural ecosystems organisms that cooperate, thrive with a sharing of resources, commodifying survival. Man is perhaps the only truly destructive species, waging wars on others, nature and in turn ourselves, a broken contract with the future.
Your view stands in concert with President Biden's and in stark contrast to the one held by his predecessor. The damage the latter did with his bromances with Putin and Kim, and his imposition of self-defeating tariffs on Chinese goods as well as his blaming COVID-19 on them, certainly destabilized an already wobbly world. I hope that Putin soon suffers the humiliating defeat that he's earned, so we can turn our attention back to rebuilding the global relationships that were developing nicely until recently.
The irony in the MAGA emphasis on "America First" is that, in this new multipolar world, we can't be offending and dissolving our alliances and relationships as tRump was doing. If their definition of American greatness is just the postwar status as sole democratic world power, that leaves us in a very weak position in this new order. Other countries will want their interests served, their voices heard. thanks to Biden, and his administration professionals, we've been rebuilding. I don't care about his age...hes 3-4 years older than tRump and he's trimmer, and more healthy...also sane. He's been very consequential. I wish the media would stop with carrying the polling narrative of his age. The alternative is ever so much worse.
Why omit the fact that China owns $1 Trillion dollars of US debt?
You can never afford to call your mortgage holder an enemy.
Should the US military ever be in conflict with China, the China would sell off their US dollars causing American interest rates to skyrocket. China has brilliantly guaranteed itself peace by owning American debt.
Long term planning can leave us with win win situations where everyone gets ahead. China has managed to keep out of wars for a long time and spend money on its economic growth -- lets see if we can keep that up.
Americans don't have to like how the Chinese run their country but that does not make it dangerous for this country. What we have is a nation that learned how to compete in a technologically developed world. It is the challenge for the US to learn to live with China and all countries that are not the US. That is what the US will not abide but instead paints the Chinese as our enemy. In fact it is the US that becomes the enemy as it threatens all nations if they don't kowtow. The US has been circling China militarily off their coast with military weaponry. Just as it did with Russia after assuring that country it would not place NATO any closer to the Russian border which was a direct threat to Russia resulting in the Ukraine war, actually an American war by proxy destroying Ukraine and several 100 thousand of its people. You don't create peace by labeling all competitors as dangerous enemies and then work on creating economic terrorism and military interventions.
How ironic. David Brooks wrote an Opinion piece for the NYT today that I just read. In it, he said, "China does not look like a growing, dynamic power, but a troubled, stagnating one." I hope he's right......
A 5 star essay, long,complex, comprehensive essay, Dan and Elliot. Thank you. China is in it for the long game. We aren't. The current leader of the Chinese Communist Party will never be a friend of the west, us. Russia is their tool and resource provider, not a friend. We have lots to fear.
As Mr. Rather has pointed out, China is indeed focused on expanding its' global reach, but there have been consequences that didn't rattle the Chinese hierarchy but certainly caused some realignment. Those massive investment proposals in both Asia and Africa have frequently met push-back - citizens have made their leaders aware that the prospect of China investing too deeply into XYZ sovereign nation is unacceptable.
Low-cost loans are also feeling push-back; what might have seen tempting - and beyond the WMF's ability to equal in terms of long-term interest payments - are coming under far greater scrutiny. Also of note is the development of Chinese owned/funded agribusiness(es) in South America, as noted in the article, but again there has been significant push-back. ['Our land, not China's', is the frequent and popular rallying cry].
The creation of synthetic islands in the China Seas is of great concern, as is the recent development by the Chinese Navy of two (2) significant classes of warship - aircraft carriers, which will inevitably provide China with a deep-water reach, and significantly fast, agile vessels that carry a formidable SSM missile punch. The US Navy is still locked in a 'bigger has to be better' mindset that offer only super-carriers when it desperately needs to follow the Chinese example.
The Chinese economy is faltering; it's food production is virtually stagnant, it's population aging, and it too is hearing the murmurs of protest and resistance that scare the stuff out of that little thug in Moscow. Change will come to China throughout the next few decades, and we cannot assume the Cold War image that we took with Communist Russia; we both improve with intelligent trade policies, we refrain from sabre-rattling, and we open far greater channels of communication.
Historically, China has not been an imperialistic power except near its own borders. Before Columbus sailed, Zheng He commanded a sailing ship over four times longer than Columbus'. His missions to the Mid East and Africa - to spread friendly trade relations. We're the ones taunting war there, not them here. We should engage the Chinese with respectful, competitive, and creative relations - especially as regards Global Warming. I'm leery of creating needless enemies and wars.
This is another reason we cannot risk someone like Trump to become President. We need Biden’s experience and temperament. Vote like our nation and the world depends on it.
China Looms
Thank you Dan and Elliot, for so clearly stating the threats, problems, and possible solutions. Your final paragraph: 'We are a small world. There is no isolation. Cooperation, resilience, and an ability to think globally — in terms of the economy, the environment, and the military — will be required to survive.' Gives us a roadmap to follow. But it will take great acumen, intelligence, and experience to carry out. That leaves out all MAGA politicians and several inexperienced would-be leaders.
I like the emphasis on the long-term planning in our relationships; we must consider every possible scenario we can in an effort to be able to keep all of us (in the world) safe and thriving.
Well done on a very complex subject.
I’ve visited China three times in the past seven years and they are a kind people, graceful and deliberate. They possess a very skilled workforce, have an abundance of technology and are a top five player in the world economy. However, let’s not look at China and other countries as the enemy but merely competitors for their place on the worlds stage of success.
Prior to my retirement form the software industry, we often referred to other companies in our industry that were also seeking success as the coopetition; competitors that we cooperated with as there were actually times where the solution was comprised of some of our software and some of theirs. This is a good way to view China as we economically need one another. Sure, we want to be #1 on the world stage, and so does China. But we should not wish them any ill will or wish them to fail as competition makes us all better. Michael Jordan never prayed that Isiah Thomas would sprain his ankle before a game. That would be too easy. Having to play one another made them both better players.
We certainly will all benefit from peaceful relationships with other countries based on coopetition.
"China’s so-called Belt and Road Initiative has poured billions of dollars into infrastructure projects with hopes of leveraging its economic power to expand its influence...."
"China [is] engaging in provocative military exercises that show off its modernized and formidable armed forces."
Realistically, looked at from a global perspective, these statements could just as well apply to the U.S. But because it's "us," we tend to resent such assertions. Nevertheless, in the eyes of the world, the 800+ U.S. military bases, for instance, merely represent the U.S. flexing its muscles of power, with an eye to intimidation.
Dan and Elliot's last statement is the real takeaway, leaving out the mention of the military---we're all in this together, and either we'll learn to cooperate, minus the saber rattling, or we will doom our species, no matter which artificial boundary we live within.
The common prognosis that China is an enemy and needs to be treated that way is exactly the wrong way for us to be thinking. We are competitors on the world stage and are interdependent economically. China is fiercely focused on educating its population, which is working for they realize that the smartest will inherit the spoils. That is also evident in their focus on "full steam ahead" on AI, while we are thinking that we should take it a bit slower, for fear of its negative aspects. Being behind in that technology is not an option. He who lags will pay a hefty price of being "also rans."
While touring China, just before the pandemic, we saw millions of sapling trees planted on every available scrap of land not used for farming or buildings. They are not unaware of the climate disaster that is looming and along with trees they have installed massive solar and wind farms.
Sophisticated diplomacy is what we need at this juncture. They need us and we need them and that's a good starting point.
In natural ecosystems organisms that cooperate, thrive with a sharing of resources, commodifying survival. Man is perhaps the only truly destructive species, waging wars on others, nature and in turn ourselves, a broken contract with the future.
Your view stands in concert with President Biden's and in stark contrast to the one held by his predecessor. The damage the latter did with his bromances with Putin and Kim, and his imposition of self-defeating tariffs on Chinese goods as well as his blaming COVID-19 on them, certainly destabilized an already wobbly world. I hope that Putin soon suffers the humiliating defeat that he's earned, so we can turn our attention back to rebuilding the global relationships that were developing nicely until recently.
The irony in the MAGA emphasis on "America First" is that, in this new multipolar world, we can't be offending and dissolving our alliances and relationships as tRump was doing. If their definition of American greatness is just the postwar status as sole democratic world power, that leaves us in a very weak position in this new order. Other countries will want their interests served, their voices heard. thanks to Biden, and his administration professionals, we've been rebuilding. I don't care about his age...hes 3-4 years older than tRump and he's trimmer, and more healthy...also sane. He's been very consequential. I wish the media would stop with carrying the polling narrative of his age. The alternative is ever so much worse.
Why omit the fact that China owns $1 Trillion dollars of US debt?
You can never afford to call your mortgage holder an enemy.
Should the US military ever be in conflict with China, the China would sell off their US dollars causing American interest rates to skyrocket. China has brilliantly guaranteed itself peace by owning American debt.
Long term planning can leave us with win win situations where everyone gets ahead. China has managed to keep out of wars for a long time and spend money on its economic growth -- lets see if we can keep that up.
Americans don't have to like how the Chinese run their country but that does not make it dangerous for this country. What we have is a nation that learned how to compete in a technologically developed world. It is the challenge for the US to learn to live with China and all countries that are not the US. That is what the US will not abide but instead paints the Chinese as our enemy. In fact it is the US that becomes the enemy as it threatens all nations if they don't kowtow. The US has been circling China militarily off their coast with military weaponry. Just as it did with Russia after assuring that country it would not place NATO any closer to the Russian border which was a direct threat to Russia resulting in the Ukraine war, actually an American war by proxy destroying Ukraine and several 100 thousand of its people. You don't create peace by labeling all competitors as dangerous enemies and then work on creating economic terrorism and military interventions.
How ironic. David Brooks wrote an Opinion piece for the NYT today that I just read. In it, he said, "China does not look like a growing, dynamic power, but a troubled, stagnating one." I hope he's right......
A 5 star essay, long,complex, comprehensive essay, Dan and Elliot. Thank you. China is in it for the long game. We aren't. The current leader of the Chinese Communist Party will never be a friend of the west, us. Russia is their tool and resource provider, not a friend. We have lots to fear.
As Mr. Rather has pointed out, China is indeed focused on expanding its' global reach, but there have been consequences that didn't rattle the Chinese hierarchy but certainly caused some realignment. Those massive investment proposals in both Asia and Africa have frequently met push-back - citizens have made their leaders aware that the prospect of China investing too deeply into XYZ sovereign nation is unacceptable.
Low-cost loans are also feeling push-back; what might have seen tempting - and beyond the WMF's ability to equal in terms of long-term interest payments - are coming under far greater scrutiny. Also of note is the development of Chinese owned/funded agribusiness(es) in South America, as noted in the article, but again there has been significant push-back. ['Our land, not China's', is the frequent and popular rallying cry].
The creation of synthetic islands in the China Seas is of great concern, as is the recent development by the Chinese Navy of two (2) significant classes of warship - aircraft carriers, which will inevitably provide China with a deep-water reach, and significantly fast, agile vessels that carry a formidable SSM missile punch. The US Navy is still locked in a 'bigger has to be better' mindset that offer only super-carriers when it desperately needs to follow the Chinese example.
The Chinese economy is faltering; it's food production is virtually stagnant, it's population aging, and it too is hearing the murmurs of protest and resistance that scare the stuff out of that little thug in Moscow. Change will come to China throughout the next few decades, and we cannot assume the Cold War image that we took with Communist Russia; we both improve with intelligent trade policies, we refrain from sabre-rattling, and we open far greater channels of communication.
Historically, China has not been an imperialistic power except near its own borders. Before Columbus sailed, Zheng He commanded a sailing ship over four times longer than Columbus'. His missions to the Mid East and Africa - to spread friendly trade relations. We're the ones taunting war there, not them here. We should engage the Chinese with respectful, competitive, and creative relations - especially as regards Global Warming. I'm leery of creating needless enemies and wars.
This is another reason we cannot risk someone like Trump to become President. We need Biden’s experience and temperament. Vote like our nation and the world depends on it.