For most incumbent first-term presidents, a reelection campaign is a foregone conclusion. So no one should be surprised that, in the end, that was the case for President Biden, as well.
It is clear he likes being president, thinks he’s doing a pretty good job, and feels his leadership is what his country needs. Being president is always some potent mixture of a desire to serve and a healthy ego. You have to think that way in order to embody an office that is almost unimaginable in the scope of the power it entails.
So while the official announcement came today, the reality that he would run again has been brewing more than a morning rush at Starbucks.
At least at this moment, Biden figures to secure the Democratic nomination without any meaningful opposition. And that means that there is a distinct possibility — maybe at this point a likelihood — that the 2024 election will be a rerun of 2020.
The chilling possibility of who could very well seize the Republican nomination will almost inevitably become one of the chief arguments Biden will pitch to the voters to justify his seeking a second term: I defeated this existential threat to American democracy once, I can beat him again.
That may prove to be true. It is possible if not probable that the previous occupant of the White House is in a weaker position now than he was when he bore the cloak of incumbency. But that is a topic for another time.
Today is about Biden, and just because the likelihood right now is that he will waltz to the nomination doesn’t mean he does so without a cloud of questions surrounding his decision to run, even from many within his own party.
The concerns center on two distinct but related points — Biden’s age and his approval ratings. Neither is a secret to anyone paying even the slightest attention to the news. Biden is the oldest person to ever hold the office, and he polls low on popularity. Polling also suggests that many Democrats would prefer another nominee. But, and this is crucial, that doesn’t mean they won’t turn out to support his candidacy. Especially if he’s running against you know who.
It is also important to state that just because Biden is facing concerns around age and popularity doesn’t mean that these attacks are fair. The fearmongering around Biden being some doddering invalid sleeping his way through the job comes courtesy of his cynical political opponents looking for an angle of attack that will land with their base and with the public at large. There is no convincing evidence anywhere that Biden lacks full command of his faculties in leading the nation.
And then there is the matter of his approval rating, which tends to hover in the low 40s. This perplexes many Democratic stalwarts who point to the substantial accomplishments Biden has achieved in his first term. He has been an effective president in pushing an ambitious agenda through a Congress in which he had the slimmest of majorities for the first two years of his term. Now he is using executive orders and the power of the executive branch to institutionalize major changes. There is no doubt Biden is leaving his stamp on America.
And yet he doesn’t seem to be getting the credit for delivering on issues that poll well with the public, like infrastructure and climate change. The economy continues to be where he polls particularly low, although an argument can be made that he has effectively led here as well. Still, for too many Americans the economy feels precarious, and that is undoubtedly part of what’s driving Biden’s poll numbers south.
So far, immigration issues, including the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, often don’t get mentioned as a Biden weakness. But they are. It is a “gut feel” matter, and Biden is vulnerable on it. Republicans will pound harder on immigration as the race gains momentum. On the other side of the political divide, many Democrats are frustrated that Biden hasn’t done more to make immigration reform a priority.
Politics is always in large part a matter of perception. People vote with their hearts as much as their heads. Biden has to address his perceived weaknesses, even if he feels they are unfair.
The truth is, age takes its toll on everyone but does so in different ways and at different times. Nevertheless, the older we get, the more there is a risk of dire developments. This is reality and can’t be ignored. Old age is not an abstract concept to any voter. You’re either old yourself or know someone who is. There is a lot to argue for why being older also has its strengths — for one, you’ve lived through a lot, and on that front Biden has personally and professionally dealt with many highs and lows. That builds experience and empathy. Maybe that could be part of his pitch. But age cannot, should not, and will not be ignored in this presidential race.
As for his relative unpopularity, perhaps the campaign will allow him to break through to the public more about what he’s done. Regardless, what happens with the economy going forward will likely overshadow all else. If it’s going well, Biden’s reelection hopes are strengthened. If it’s struggling, he’s likely to be in trouble.
Maybe most important of all is the political climate in which we live. It is so highly charged and deeply partisan that most voters have already likely made up their minds — they will vote for the D or the R on the ballot no matter what. That leaves a struggle to turn out as many of your voters as possible and a battle for the small sliver of true undecideds in the battleground states.
And herein lies what is potentially Biden's biggest strength: The Republican embrace of extreme positions on issues like abortion, guns, and attacks on democracy have made the party even less popular than Biden with large swaths of the voting public. This is especially true in the suburbs, which for the next election — as with those of the recent past — may be decisive.
Young voters are also alienated and have been turning out to vote for Democrats in larger numbers. This dynamic led to surprisingly strong results for Democrats in the 2022 election when the economy was not so great and Biden was unpopular. The party hopes that trend continues into 2024.
In the end, voting for president is almost exclusively a binary choice. Do you want this guy or that one? Biden has a lot he can say for why he should be president. But the biggest argument might be to point across the debate stage and say, “I’m not him.”
That might end up being more than enough. But “might” is the key word in that sentence.
Time to remind ourselves that this presidential race is still in the very early stages. So, as we have said in years past: “Stay alert. Overnight is a long time in politics, a week is forever. And what we most expect often does not happen; what we least expect often does.”
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I think I have to take issue with one point you made early on: "Being president is always some potent mixture of a desire to serve and a healthy ego." TFG had neither a desire to serve nor a healthy ego, unless by, "serve," you meant, "serve himself," and by, "healthy," you meant,"enormous."
I find it ironic that Biden's age is a concern to some, while Trump's age doesn't seem to matter. Trump is only 3-1/2 years younger. Perhaps it's because Biden acts his age while Trump acts like a 3-1/2 year old.
Hi, Dan! You failed to mention that "the other guy" (I won't use his name) is a mere 4 years younger than Biden. It's truly hypocritical of people, particularly on the political right, to make claims that Biden is too old but "the other guy" isn't.