Unprecedented

From a courtroom in Florida

Credit: Drew Angerer

Unprecedented is a word bandied about so often that it ceases to have much meaning. But in the truest, strictest sense of the word, what we are seeing now with Donald Trump is completely without precedent in the history of this country. Nothing like this has ever happened before. 

It is true that we’ve been saying some version of this for many years now, and for good reason. Trump has been a reckless wrecking ball through American democracy unlike we have ever seen. He has smashed norms of civility and governance. He has sown division. He has peddled lies and threats, debased our national discourse, and threatened the very integrity of our electoral system, fomenting a violent insurrection meant to overturn the will of the people in the 2020 election. 

Trump now faces multiple charges in federal and state court to determine whether his actions rise to the level of criminality. More charges are likely to follow. 

With all of this as a backdrop, it is easy to get overwhelmed — and even jaded — by the long list of the unprecedented. What happened earlier this week in a Florida courtroom, with the former president pleading not guilty in the case concerning his handling of classified documents, is certainly a big deal. But should we contextualize it as just one of many inflection points? 

The short answer is no. Trump is the first president to be charged by the United States Department of Justice. Nixon was on his way, but it never happened. And now we have the prospects of the first federal trial for a former president, one who is also the leading candidate for his party’s nomination for president in 2024. 

It is mind-boggling. And it plunges us into ever greater uncertainty.

There are concerns that the judge presiding over the case — a Trump appointee, Aileen M. Cannon — has shown bias in favor of Trump in a previous case. And she can make it difficult for the prosecution. Then there is always the worry that Trump, who has wriggled out of legal jeopardy many times in his life, will escape accountability yet again. And what about future charges for his role in trying to overturn the election — both a state case in Georgia and a federal case? Could those overshadow what is happening in Florida?

These are fair questions and points, but they should not dilute the reality that Trump's appearance this week represents a watershed moment. Courtrooms — especially federal ones — are intimidating places, particularly for defendants. The vast majority of federal cases end in guilty pleas, a fraction are dismissed, and of those that go to trial, a majority end in conviction. When Trump walked into court, he walked into those odds. 

Trump may be a lot of things, but naive is not one of them. He is especially aware of threats to his power and image. Now he has to add a threat to his very freedom. The list of charges he faces is very serious. They’re the kind of crimes that send people to prison for many years. And from what we’ve seen thus far of the evidence, it seems to be strong. And damning. Even many Republicans agree. 

Sure, Trump can bloviate and bluster. He can lash out and lie. But he knows what he’s facing. He will have to wake up every day to that reality. Reports from inside the courtroom suggest this truth was reflected in the way he looked and acted. 

As must be said, Trump is innocent until proven guilty. And his legal team will look for ways to have the case thrown out or appealed. Most court watchers predict that the chances of those outcomes are slim. But the concerns around the presiding judge are real. There could very well be an attempt to at least prolong this case until after the 2024 election. 

All these factors add up to a perilous time for the United States. Trump and his allies will try to discredit the judicial system. The clock ticks to next year’s presidential election. We are undoubtedly in for a lot more of the unprecedented. 

But that can break in many different directions. Before the indictment was unsealed, more Republicans seemed to be rallying to Trump’s defense, but as the charges sink in, we have seen a rising level of criticism from within his own party — including some of his rivals for the nomination. The longer this goes on, the more Trump has to appear in court, the more this case becomes a fixture of our time, will the former president continue to lose luster within his party? Or will he emerge even stronger with his base and a majority of Republican primary voters? 

We will have to see as this grave era for our country continues to unfold. But something changed with this indictment; this is significant, fraught, and, yes, unprecedented.