Trump Lost
And so did we
Bombs and bullying didn’t cut it. Neither will real estate buddies as peace negotiators. Nevertheless, there is a deal to end it. Or so says the president.
With this war, as with almost everything else having to do with this president, skepticism is wise. For what it may be worth, we are told that after a 100-plus day war with Iran, it is over. By any objective analysis, Donald Trump lost. The buck and the blame begin and end with him.
American citizens lost too, those who voted for him and those who didn’t. Because of the president’s misguided adventure, we are all left with horrific inflation, much higher gas prices, and a country with diminished standing around the world.
If the deal was so great, why did they keep it a secret for days? It leaked, of course, and now we know why it was kept under wraps. What Trump is offering the Iranians is dangerously close to a white flag. Why? This war and its consequences are damaging the president politically and he wants out.
This war Trump chose to start and struggles to end cost Americans and the world dearly. What began with a barrage of bombs and triumphal bluster is ending with a whimper, if it is indeed ending.
More than 5,000 human lives were lost to this war. American, Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese, and Iraqi lives. An additional 35,000 people are estimated to have been injured.
Thirteen members of the American military have been killed and 413 wounded. Those are the official Defense Department numbers.
The financial cost is in the tens of billions of dollars. The Pentagon, no longer a provider of trusted information, puts the direct military cost of war at $29 billion. It has also requested $200 billion from Congress to cover shortfalls, war-related repairs, and equipment replacement.
The reputational cost to the United States is harder to calculate. Our (perhaps former) allies in Europe and Asia have ample reason to distrust their once stalwart partner. China, Russia, and North Korea figured to be emboldened by Trump’s loss.
None of those costs seemed to have been taken into account as Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and Steve Witkoff, the president’s friend, negotiated this latest deal to end the war.
The pending memorandum of understanding (MOU), a precursor to a final deal, will be signed on Friday in Geneva. The one-and-a-half pager is short on details and teeth. Here are the highlights:
Extension of the cease-fire for 60 days as final details are hammered out
Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
Iran will not charge a fee to go through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, though after 60 days is anyone’s guess.
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium will be “adequately addressed” (whatever, if anything, that may mean).
Iran will be allowed to sell oil.
Sanctions will be lifted and assets unfrozen (a tremendous haul of money for the Iranians).
Iran will be given $300 billion for Gulf state neighbors to rebuild, provided the strait remains open and they promise to never produce a nuclear weapon.
A lot is missing from this agreement. For one, uranium won’t be seized. Trump defended that decision on Tuesday. “You could make the case, ‘Why are you even bothering?’ Because it’s not really valuable,” he said. The most glaring omission from the MOU is an enforcement mechanism, unlike the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, President Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which took two years to negotiate.
It restricted Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium, limited the development of new technology, dismantled several nuclear facilities, and, most importantly, gave the International Atomic Energy Agency authority to conduct inspections at will.
Trump called that “the worst agreement” and withdrew from the accord during his first term. This led to Tehran expanding its enrichment program, which in turn precipitated the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites a year ago.
Any mention of or comparison to Obama’s deal with Iran enrages Trump.
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said there is no comparison. The 2015 pact was “a very detailed and very technical agreement” with “implementation mechanisms and oversight… This [Trump] thing sounds like something that was pieced together over WhatsApp messages,” he told the Financial Times.
None of the stated goals of the war, a moving target at best, will be achieved with this deal. Regime change? No, though the Ayatollah was killed, his even more hardline son took his place. Freedom for the Iranian people? No, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard put down any protests. Elimination of the Iranian nuclear program? No, only a promise to never acquire nuclear weapons. Destruction of terror proxies? No, Hezbollah and the Houthis remain largely intact.
In addition to not achieving his objectives, Trump seems to have lost the plot. On Wednesday, at the G7 Summit in France, he called the Iranian government “very rational people. They are nice to deal with, they are strong and smart people. They are not radicalized, and they are looking to help their country.” To be clear, Iran is a brutal authoritarian theocracy that has put down any attempt by its citizens to protest its hardline policies.
Almost no one is happy with the deal, including many Trump loyalists.
“Trump has surrendered to Iran.” - Erick Erickson, conservative radio host
“…all the makings of a humiliation after all of the president’s tough talk.” - The National Review editorial
Giving billions to Iran is like offering “the Marshall Plan to rebuild Germany while the Nazis were still in power.” - Marc Thiessen, Fox (News) commentator
“Unless you were homeschooled by a day drinker, no one’s confident that Iran is going to do anything.” - Senator John Kennedy (R-LA)
Even Iran war-fan and Trump enabler Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has reservations, though he suggested only “the architect of the deal, Vice President Vance” come before Congress to defend it.
Trump would like nothing more than to put his critics and this ill-conceived war behind him. But don’t think he is done dabbling in international affairs. He reportedly has his sights set on regime change in Cuba. And acquiring Greenland is not off the table.
With the midterms just months away and his status as a lame duck president looming, Trump is trying to stay relevant through one foreign move after another.
Meanwhile, even if the new version of a peace deal holds, we will be considerably worse off than we were the day before the war started. Most notably, the roles have been reversed with Iranians emerging more powerful, and our president more pathetic.
And more dangerous.
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Stay Steady,
Dan
Stupid man started a stupid war. And we all are paying for it.
Trump is turning us into a country of The Biggest Losers.