The GOP’s Costly Abortion Strategy

How Democrats could flip Florida

Credit: Getty Images

If Republicans were hopeful the issue of abortion would fade from voters’ consciousness before the next election, their own actions have assured that’s not happening. And today’s MAGA Republicans can thank Governor Ron DeSantis and the Florida Supreme Court for the latest headlines, which are like manna from heaven for Democrats.

While any political consultant worth their salt would tell you extreme abortion restrictions are losers at the polls, Republicans are doubling down, marching in lockstep to the nearest cliff, much to the delight of Democrats from coast to coast.

But let’s stick with Florida for a moment, where the state’s supreme court handed down two rulings this week: one upholding a six-week abortion ban and another allowing a November ballot initiative that could establish a constitutional right to abortion. Democrats immediately declared Florida, where Republicans have a huge edge in registered voters, to be “in play.”

It took Republicans nearly 50 years to overturn Roe v. Wade but less than two to make a mess of all things related to abortion. In 2022, the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe. Dobbs has prompted unintended medical consequences for Americans and political consequences for Republicans.

Unintended Consequences

Since the ruling, there have been more abortions in the United States, not fewer — 10 percent more. And the issue of reproductive rights has galvanized the electorate. The predicted “red wave” during the 2022 midterm election never happened. Republicans did not retake the Senate, and their majority in the House was thin. It’s now down to one. 

Every abortion-rights initiative on state ballots has passed, even in red states like Kentucky and Kansas.

The Virginia House flipped from Republican to Democrat in reaction to a restrictive abortion law. 

“The Dobbs ruling created a cascading effect of abortion restrictions in Republican-controlled states nationwide and sparked a new movement of abortion rights activism,” wrote Nick Robertson in The Hill.

So conservatives finally got their wish, then lost at the ballot box, and continue to lose. As recently as last week, a Fox (yes, Fox) News poll showed 59% of Americans support abortion rights. This support has increased by double digits since just before Dobbs. So one might think the Republican Party, once known to be politically savvy and disciplined, would pull back on highly restrictive laws and inflammatory rhetoric. They have done neither.

Since Dobbs, 14 states have banned abortion with 14 others significantly restricting access. Florida, the latest to do so.  

Trump is Stumped

Donald Trump has proudly and vocally taken all the credit for overturning Roe. “For 54 years, they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated, and I did it, and I'm proud to have done it,” he boasted in January. Trump has intimated he will impose a national 16-week abortion ban if elected. Conservatives are pressuring Trump, if elected, to issue an executive order on day one banning medication abortion, which is used for almost. almost two-thirds of abortions currently. Republicans would also like to make all abortions a felony.

The Florida court ruling forced Donald Trump to do the unthinkable: have no comment. Apparently, he will have a statement “sometime next week.” Perhaps the presumptive Republican nominee needs time to strategize because this is a political quagmire. None of his options are good. He could: a) support the six-week ban, which about 75% of the country opposes; b) reiterate his opposition to the six-week ban, which would alienate his base; or c) say he will override the six-week ban with a 16-week ban, which would be a gift to the Biden campaign and Democrats everywhere.

Florida’s six-week ban will go into effect May 1, which means the people of Florida will live with this very restrictive abortion law for six months before voting on the ballot initiative. Remember that every other ballot initiative in the nation has passed, and none had a highly restrictive law in place for half a year as motivation. 

Fighting Back

The Biden campaign has launched an ad criticizing Trump’s abortion stance. It is part of a $30 million ad buy in swing states. The campaign added Florida to the list after yesterday’s ruling.

“This new, extreme abortion ban — one that Donald Trump personally paved the way for — will now amount to a ban for the entire Southeast. Women in need of reproductive care throughout the region now face a choice between putting their lives at risk or traveling hundreds or thousands of miles to get care,” said Biden Campaign Manager Julie Chavez-Rodriguez.

As many as 11 states will have abortion rights initiatives on the ballot in 2024, some in states with very competitive races that would help Democrats with big voter turnout. 

Abortion is one of the most important issues for young voters. As we wrote last week, the youth vote is vital to President Biden’s reelection strategy. As long as Republicans continue to turn a deaf ear to the opinion of a majority of Americans and push for more restrictive abortion laws, including a national ban, the outlawing of medication abortion, and even felonizing abortion, the job of getting young voters to the polls will be made that much easier.

If Republicans lose Florida, and perhaps the election, fingers will be pointed squarely at those who pushed the anti-choice agenda to an electorate that overwhelmingly rejects it.

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