The Big What If

What will happen if Trump is convicted?

Credit: Getty Images

This is a time to pause and reflect on important moments in our nation’s history. We have lived through much lately. As this is written, whether most realize it or not, we are at a critical juncture.

That moment is happening in a Manhattan courtroom, and this reporter believes we should step back, take a deep breath, and consider the seriousness of Donald Trump’s criminal trial, as much as the defendant would like us not to.

Trying to follow the proceedings closely can be alternately painful and shameful. It can make you long for a shower or an adult beverage. We’ve read accounts of planting news stories, paying to have stories shelved, propositioning a porn star, a sexual encounter, a sleeping defendant, and constantly bickering attorneys. It became even more of a circus when the speaker of the House and several Republican United States senators showed up in New York to “support” Trump by attending the trial. They were actually on hand to help the defendant circumnavigate the judge’s gag order by publicly trashing the proceedings. One would think these elected officials would have better things to do than kiss the ring.

But something is missing from the daily coverage — a really big what if. What if Trump is convicted?

Pundits, the press, and much of the public are ignoring or underplaying the real possibility that the Republican nominee for president could soon be a convicted felon.

The presidential campaign must go on, debates and conventions planned, rallies organized. But until the jury renders a verdict, every future campaign event should appear with an asterisk and a footnote that reads “This event could be affected by the conviction and possible prison sentence of the Republican nominee.”

Donald Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. Each count carries the possibility of more than a year in prison. Since it would be Trump’s first felony conviction and it wasn’t a violent crime, legal experts have written that he may not face jail time, but it is a possibility. He can and will likely try to appeal.

The New York Times reviewed the outcomes of thousands of similar cases and reports: “If Mr. Trump is found guilty, incarceration is an actual possibility. It’s not certain, of course, but it is plausible.” The Times analysis found that approximately 1 in 10 cases of falsifying business records results in imprisonment. If Trump doesn’t receive a prison sentence, he will probably be assessed a fine, assigned probation, and perhaps ordered to a rehabilitation program (good luck with that).

If Trump is convicted and spared a trip to Sing Sing, he will, of course, blame everyone but himself and spin it as a victory. However, he might not be able to vote in the presidential election. Florida law states that a felon is disenfranchised until his fines are paid and his sentence is fulfilled, including probation or parole.

Will voters care?

The former president’s MAGA base is not likely to desert him, but what about the true independents and the undecided? Many millions of advertising dollars would be spent attempting to convince voters that a recently convicted felon and someone possibly convicted of election interference should be nowhere near the White House. It should be noted that Trump remains innocent unless convicted. If he is convicted, it should matter. A lot. But will it?

Regardless of the outcome of this trial, or other cases where he faces even more serious charges, how have we arrived at this point? That a man with this much baggage is a viable candidate for president of the United States? Why are so many willing to risk the demise of our great experiment in democracy for the sake of one man? I have theories but no solid answers. I’d love to know what you think has happened in our country that has allowed this moment to become a reality.

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Stay Steady,
Dan