Strait Back to War
When we need rational leadership most
If Donald Trump was the head of a Fortune 500 company, he would have long been relieved of his duties — for a list of reasons as long as your arm — but most notably, he would be fired as the country’s CEO for his vacillating and chaotic handling of the war with Iran.
Americans know and cannot be distracted from this hard truth: It is a sad and dangerous state of affairs that our country is being dragged behind a demagogue who seems clueless about how to get us out of a war he created. And on Monday, he made it worse by stating the United States was taking control of the Strait of Hormuz — again — and would begin charging a fee to guarantee safe passage of cargo ships.
It was less than a month ago that his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, called a similar plan by the Iranians illegal. “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway,” he said.
Trump’s “leadership” on Iran is so abysmal that it is hard to keep track of where we actually are and what is actually happening. But we must try, because this is a perilous time for our country and the world. It is imperative that we understand the circumstances and the consequences of the war. Even if the president doesn’t.
Projecting strength, rather than competent leadership, is Trump’s modus operandi. He knows it is red meat for his base, regardless of the outcome. It means he will stick to his old ways, come what may. That is exactly what he is doing with Iran.
Known for lies and inconsistent messaging, Trump’s dealings with Tehran are even more whiplash-inducing than usual. Before signing the memorandum of understanding (MOU) in June, he called the Iranians “strong,” “smart people,” who are “not radicalized.” The MOU, which was more than generous to the Iranians, lifted sanctions, ended the U.S. naval blockade, and contained the framework for a $300 billion reconstruction plan.
Then, last week at the NATO summit in Turkey, he did a 180, calling Iranians “scum,” “liars,” and “vicious, violent people,” before canceling the ceasefire, resuming the blockade and the bombings, and revoking sanctions waivers.
Why the flip-flop? Is Trump crazy like a fox and doing it to keep his adversaries guessing? No. Is he making decisions on a whim based on what his last adviser suggests? Or, more concerning, is he going on what he calls his gut instinct, which he has long trusted more than intelligence gathered by government agencies? “Gut instinct” has a nice connotation, but it’s nothing on which to base a war.
Whatever the reason, the potentially catastrophic consequences are the same. Trump is continuing to destabilize the world economy. His behavior makes what is left of our allies even more wary of dealing with the United States, while making our adversaries less fearful with each act of incompetence.
The Iranians have been planning for the possibility of this war for decades. Trump can’t strong-arm the Ayatollah, or cajole him, or wait him out. For Iran, this war is existential, and therefore they believe they have nothing to lose by playing hard and tough. Add the massive leverage of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and “winning” for the U.S. is increasingly hard to envision.
Prior to the start of the war, one-third of the world’s oil and one-fifth of liquefied gas traveled through the Hormuz chokepoint free of charge. One hundred thirty ships passed through daily. That number has dwindled to about a dozen, with the added burden of a $1 to $2 million per ship toll. Max Boot of The Washington Post calls Iran’s control of the strait “a weapon of mass economic destruction.”
Trump does seem to understand the importance of the strait, which is why on Monday he told “Fox & Friends,” “We’re taking over the strait… We’re going to hit [Iran] very hard and keep the strait, and probably run it.”
When he says “run it,” he means the U.S. will extort money, just like the Iranians. “As a matter of FAIRNESS, [the U.S.] will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” he posted on social media.
Before the war Trump started, anyone could travel through the Strait of Hormuz for free. It is Trump’s actions that caused this “section of the world” to become “volatile,” necessitating security measures.
The Iranians were incredulous at Trump’s assertion. The foreign minister mocked Trump on social media: “POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”
Also, Iran vehemently maintains it is still in control of the strait. A spokesperson for the Iranian military said the country “will not, under any circumstances, allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and we will not do so in the future.”
Even with the language barrier, Iran is hip to Trump’s disinformation campaign. “Lying has become part of the U.S. administration’s behavioral pattern, and they have become addicted to it,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said.
Wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran would mean invading Iran with American ground troops. Ground troops would mean U.S. casualties well beyond the 13 service members killed since the start of hostilities in February. It is doubtful the country would countenance such an escalation. The latest polling on the war shows deep opposition to it and Trump’s handling of it.
Iran is setting the terms and playing Trump like a fiddle. If they wanted to end the war, they could, but they chose not to. Not yet, anyway. Prolonging it helps them and hurts Trump. They don’t want more bombing, but it is a price Iran is willing to pay as they wait him out. They are using the timing of midterm elections as critical leverage, holding global oil prices hostage. And the president knows it.
What does a bully do when he is backed into a corner? He lashes out. That is what Trump did by ripping up the MOU, attacking Iran again, and claiming control of the strait.
After all of this back-and-forth, oil futures are up more than 6% on Monday, with gas prices sure to follow and fewer than four months until the midterms. Lest we forget: All of this makes Trump more desperate.
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Dan
There is no one in this administration who is rational.
We have no rational leadership. We have a bunch of buffoons. It looks like we will be in this one for the long haul.