It was only a few days ago that Democrats were cheering Raphael Warnock’s big win in the Georgia Senate race. Now the party wakes up this Friday morning to ... Kyrsten Sinema.
The breaking news is that Sinema, who has long been a thorn in the side of Senate Democrats with her inscrutable demands and frustrating voting patterns, is leaving the party. She says she’s not becoming a Republican but an “ independent.” What exactly that means remains to be seen.
Suddenly the 51-49 Democratic majority in the Senate looks a little different, but how different? The majority already included two independents who caucus with the party and are reliable votes — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. Will Sinema be in that mold? Her tenure thus far suggests she will be much more problematic for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. But how much?
Sinema says this is all about her being an independent-minded moderate who feels out of place in either party because they are being pulled to the extremes. But as many are already noting, this might be a lot more about trying to secure a path to reelection in 2024. It was almost certain that Sinema would face a primary challenger if she had remained a Democrat. The young Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego, who served in the Marines in the Iraq War, has made many statements that suggest he will run.
In the recent midterms, Democrats won big in Arizona, including Senator Mark Kelly, who won by nearly five points. Had Kelly lost or barely hung on, Sinema could have made the case that she would be the only Democrat who could win in 2024. That case is a lot harder to make now. The politics of the state are clearly shifting. Running as an independent allows her to skip a primary.
That brings up the question of what might happen in the general election. Would she split the vote and deliver the seat to a Republican? Would her candidacy falter, especially if Gallego runs and attracts enthusiasm from young and minority voters? These are the questions that will be debated by political strategists over the next two years.
In the meantime, it is useful to pull out a bit and ask what insights these developments give to our current political era. There was a time when the ranks of Senate Democrats were full of people like Sinema. They were difficult to wrangle, liked to position themselves as moderates, and often frustrated party leaders. Just think back to the sausage making over Obamacare.
But let’s use Senator Warnock now as a comparison. He is not a firebrand in the way he speaks. He is willing to work across the aisle, a fact he liked to highlight during his recent campaign. But he is also not apologetic about his progressive beliefs. He is a pragmatic progressive. And he won in a state where Republicans otherwise did very well in 2022. Some of that was clearly his opponent, but it would do Warnock a grave disservice to diminish his political skills.
There are other senators like him, especially among the younger cohort in the caucus. There is a growing determination and progressive energy among Senate Democrats. Just look at how much they were able to accomplish in the last Congress with the slimmest majority possible. Sinema seems anachronistic, especially coming from a state trending blue like Arizona. Joe Manchin also seems cut from that mold, but he is representing West Virginia, a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020.
It is pretty clear that Manchin is the only person who could win in West Virginia as a Democrat these days. Perhaps Sinema told herself that was the case for her in Arizona. The election results tell a different story.
Sinema has gotten a lot of criticism from her constituents, and not only for her votes. She is seen as out of touch, providing few opportunities for public engagement. And she is seen as close to lobbyists and business interests. Back in 2018, Democratic activists worked tirelessly for her election and gave lots of money to her campaign. This feeling of betrayal will shape not only her future but the vetting of future candidates.
One suspects that going forward, Democrats will be looking for a lot more Warnocks and a lot fewer Sinemas. Even in purple states. Maybe especially in purple states.
Note: If you are not already a subscriber to our Steady newsletter, please consider joining us. And we always appreciate you sharing our content with others and leaving your thoughts in the comments.
A lot of Democrats in Arizona would rather vote for a strong Dem candidate than for Sinema. To win a general election, many Independents and Republicans will need to vote for her. She better hope for an opponent who is a Trump candidate that Republicans don’t want to vote for.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D, or I, Ariz.) strikes again.
I have to ask this question. Is anyone truly surprised at the actions of Senator Kyrsten Sinema?
I’m not. As a matter of fact, it was expected, at least by me anyway. I mean, what else is she going to do to get headlines, other than change her party? It’s been reported there is a reason or two why she’s doing this at this time.
A. She isn’t real popular back in her home state with the Democratic voters, or the Republican voters for that matter.
B. She is expected to have a very serious opponent on the Democratic ticket in Arizona in 2024. So, she is guessing that she’ll get to run in the general election as an Independent candidate against him, and whomever is the Republican candidate.
Now, study this just for a minute. Does any of this make sense? Last I looked, she’s not Senator Bernie Sanders! She darn sure doesn’t act like him either. But, seriously, her philosophy here isn’t making sense. If she’s not liked by her actions to this point in the Senate by her state voters of either party, just exactly what good is changing your party affiliation going to do for the primary, or upcoming general election?
What she has done is rake in millions and millions of dollars from her high dollar groups she’s catered to the past two years, and (excuse my vernacular) to hell with her fellow Arizonans, or any other American citizen for that matter. She’s about as much a waste in the Senate as the entire lot of Republican, Trump-loving, bunch. All of them.
Now, on to another big topic of the week. The fight for Speaker of the House. Now, we all know that the Republicans did get a slight majority in the House. All in all, do they really, truly, have one Republican that would come close to being qualified for the position of Speaker of the House? One that d***n sure isn’t. Kevin McCarthy!!! He has absolutely no business even close to the Speakers gavel! Having him as Speaker will be like us re-electing Trump to office. And I wouldn’t elect him as dog catcher!
Speaking of Trump loving people, the MAGA people. There’s one in, guess where, ARIZONA, still raising a stink about her election loss. (Sound familiar?) After her visit to Mar-a-Lago, Kari Lake filed a lawsuit about her election results. According to a report in the Washington Post, she’s (wait for it.....) wanting the results thrown out and a new election be held, or for the court to throw the results out and appoint her as the winning Governor of Arizona.
Now, I ask you. Just exactly who does this sound like? A repeat of the 2020 election a certain person still hasn’t conceded to losing. But continues wasting money in court after court losing legal battles. Give us a break, Lake. You lost. Get over it and move on. Geeze!
That’s it. Just a few thoughts that come to mind for the last week. But hold on folks, this week is going to start off with a big bang! The January 6 Senate Committee meets today, (Sunday) to discuss WHO they will be referring to the DOJ for criminal prosecution. I, for one, can’t wait to see who’s on this list.
Does anyone wish to place any bets on who’ll be NO. 1 on the list?
Feel free to share who you think needs to be on this list, or should be on this list.