Primary Stakes
Can Trump be challenged?
We’re just getting used to 2023. And we’re already talking about 2024.
Welcome to the world of American presidential politics. It might be billed as a quadrennial dance, but it never really is out of season.
If you’re a bit of a newshound you may have guessed the peg for this column: Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has announced she’s running for the Republican nomination for president.
One of the joys of this newsletter is we get to pick and choose what we cover. “Why spend time on this?” some of you may ask. It’s a fair question. After all, there’s more than enough horse race coverage out there already. And this far out it’s especially pointless to try to handicap a competition that will change many times in unknowable ways over the months to come.
But the announcement does provide a useful lens through which to gain perspective on where we stand at this moment on some fundamental issues that will define our nation going forward. Chief among them is the health of our democracy.
The former president, in whose administration Haley served as ambassador to the United Nations, fundamentally threatened American democracy during his tenure in office. He was defeated convincingly in the 2020 election, but the danger he posed only increased, spiking with the violent insurrection he spurred on January 6, 2021.
Until Haley’s announcement, Trump was the only official candidate for the Republican nomination. And the fact that there are still only two (despite widespread speculation that others, such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, will jump in) is significant. It’s still early to be sure, but not that early. And the tentative nature around several would-be candidates points to a central truth about the race to win the Republican nomination: Donald Trump remains the favorite. The path to 2024 for anyone else will have to go through him.
At this point, no one else has shown they come close to matching Trump’s political instincts for garnering support from the Republican base. Yes, others like DeSantis try to mimic Trump’s alpha dog posture with their mean-spiritedness and divisiveness. But the very definition of an alpha dog is there can be just one. And that means any posturing along these lines will prove hollow if they won’t attack Trump directly.
And so far, no one, including Haley, is trying.
Back in 2016, Haley, like many establishment Republicans, went on the record with strong criticisms of who Trump was and what he stood for. Almost all of these one-time critics (we’re looking at you, Lindsey Graham) have since shamelessly kissed his ring too many times to count. Trump purchased their fealty with fear, not loyalty in return. They knew he could unleash attacks on them that could destroy their standing within the party. And so they acquiesced.
In the wake of the 2022 elections, many have commented that Trump’s power has waned. Candidates he backed lost elections many Republicans thought they could win. He faces serious legal challenges that could lead to indictments. In politics there’s always a danger of becoming yesterday’s news.
But Trump isn’t like the politicians we have seen in the past, and our political environment is also so different from other times that finding comparisons for the 2024 campaign may be pointless. Most first-term presidents, when they lose, are quickly forgotten. Parties move on. Not these Republicans.
Those who want to be president know it is less about winning a system of primaries and more about being seen by voters as the heir to Trump — divisive, crass, a ruthless fighter for reactionary causes, and deeply conversant in the conspiracy theories that animate the far right. And it’s hard to claim you’re the heir when the original is still very much alive and wants the same job.
Trump has turned Republican politics into a blood sport, and it is an environment in which he thrives. Like any streetfighter, he knows you want to be the one to throw the first punch, and his competitors are the ones pulling their punches.
Haley is considered a long shot for these very reasons. Her announcement video was the usual pablum of biography, resume, anti-Washington establishment, and bringing people together. Is that really what animates Republican voters today? She did add at the end, “You should know this about me. I don’t put up with bullies, and when you kick back, it hurts them more if you are wearing heels.”
Was that a dig at Trump, the bully whom she refused to ultimately refute? It could be read as that, but it comes here in reference to China and Russia being bullies “on the march.” Subtlety is not going to be a winning formula.
One can argue that Haley might be a far stronger general election candidate than Trump. There was a time when she was seen — and covered by the press — as a conservative but pragmatic politician. She is a woman of color, the daughter of Indian immigrants. She signed a law to remove the Confederate flag from the South Carolina state capitol complex. She had an air of independence and freshness.
That is long gone in the wake of her service to Trump. Furthermore, candidates like this do not appear to be what most Republican voters want today.
Politics is inherently full of uncertainty. Early favorites often fade. Long shots such as Haley occasionally break through and win. Events beyond our ability to predict might change the contours of the race.
But ultimately presidential campaigns come down to the candidates themselves, on the stage and staring down the glare of the spotlight. They need to separate themselves from their competitors while not losing the base. They need to capture the spirit of the party and its current mood.
And right now, until proven otherwise, among Republicans both of those are owned by Donald Trump. Which leaves many Americans to worry and wonder what this may eventually mean for the country.
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I'm half way through the Jan 6th Committee Report and do not understand why Mr Trump is not in prison for sedition. It is clear from the evidence that he made every type of attempt imaginable to stay in office illegally. He shouldn't even be able to run again. He is a clear and present danger to our democracy.
I am going to be optimistic. I am seeing a dramatic change in our society. I am seeing people of color living, shopping and working in my neighborhood where they didn’t used to be. I am seeing more people of color on television than I ever had before. I am seeing people connecting like they haven’t before. We just held a discussion of Black History in my community. It brought black and white people together in a positive way. Things are changing for the better. Homosexuality is more acceptable than it used to be. The same sex marriage act passed. People are opening up to each other more than ever. Trump and the Republicans created division, anger, fear, worry etc. which has resulted in a dramatic increase in mental health issues and acts of violence. They are responsible for encouraging people to act violently by promoting gun ownership despite all the mass shootings and parents begging for gun legislation. They banned abortions which takes away a woman’s right to manage her own health and they want to deny the use of birth control. They are pushing for banning books and denying our history. They support racism and antisemitism. They approve of a President that is mean, vindictive, hateful, and self centered. Nothing they have said or done has done anyone any good. It has in fact caused us great harm. The Democrats have a strong case to win the 2024 election. We need optimism, hope and actions that will help us and protect us. We must vote for the Democratic Party. I like Biden and feel that he is kind, caring, productive and forward thinking. It is my hope that more Americans feel as I do than those who do not. Speak up! Speak out! Let your feelings be known. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. We can succeed! We will succeed.