Message Sent Loud and Clear

But will it be received by the president and his party?

An American exercises her right to vote in Tuesday’s election in Costa Mesa, California. Credit: Getty Images

The president says the shellacking his party took in Tuesday’s elections is simply not his fault. He publicly blames the losses on the government shutdown, which he, in turn, blames on the filibuster rule in the Senate. In other words, the buck never stops anywhere in his vicinity. More on that in a moment.

Please. Few people with any real sense about American politics are buying what he’s selling.

How about some high-ranking Republicans, who will put country above party, pull the politically weakened president aside and say, ‘Hey, this one is on you.’ You don’t have to be an expert analyst to believe that the president’s party will be subject to another sound thumping in next year’s midterms if they stay the Trump’s-way-or-the-highway course.

He was elected to lower grocery prices, not deny food assistance to the hungry. He promised to cut electric bills in half, instead he canceled all Biden-era clean energy initiatives. He demolished the East Wing to make way for a gargantuan, eponymous ballroom. We could go on, but the essential point is this: his message doesn’t stray from meanness or me-ness.

No matter how the Republicans spin Tuesday’s election results, it was a pummeling — some of the worst losses in years. Not only did Democrats win every major race, they won the small ones too in a big way.

The vote count in Virginia and New Jersey governors’ races crushed the polling predictions. Both Democrats won by double digits and New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill flipped five counties won by Trump in 2024.

In New York City, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who won by almost nine points, electrified the electorate. More than two-million people voted, the most since 1967 and almost twice as many as in 2021.

In California, the ballot measure to allow mid-decade redistricting won by 28 points, with higher than expected turnout.

There are many micro reasons for these wins, specific to candidates and their constituencies but the undeniable, macro reason? The president and his Republican enablers.

“I don’t think the loss last night was any reflection about Republicans at all,” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said (not in jest), trying to appease his president and his caucus, while gaslighting the country.

The reality is that Trump is deeply unpopular and his numbers have been steadily declining. In the most recent polling average, he is 13 points underwater, by far the lowest of this term. Most of the electorate is unhappy with how he is handling every major issue from inflation to immigration. He is being blamed for the government shutdown and still refuses to even meet with Democrats to end it.

The president is an election day conundrum. When his name appears on the ballot he often wins, and the coattails for down-ballot Republicans are long. When he isn’t on the ballot, his ability to get out his base is still potent but, as we saw on Tuesday, he also energizes the opposition, which is bigger than his base.

“People need to understand: If you want to keep Trump’s agenda moving forward, you’ve got to come out in midterms,” Johnson said on Wednesday. True, but so is the inverse: If you want to stop Trump’s agenda you have to vote in the midterms. And that must be worrisome to Congressional Republicans, most of whom are up for reelection in 2026.

Republicans find themselves trapped between the president and a hard reality: stand up to Trump and face his wrath, or remain a toadying loyalist and possibly get voted out of office. For the first time this term, cracks are showing.

On Wednesday morning the president met with Senate Republicans for an election-post mortem. During the part of the meeting open to the media, the president asked for the “nuclear option,” urging Senate Majority Leader John Thune to get rid of the filibuster.

The filibuster is a procedure that allows any Senator to block a bill or measure by extending debate indefinitely, thus preventing a final vote. 60 votes are needed to overcome a filibuster. The filibuster has been a crucial stratagem for both parties, when they are in the minority, so neither has been willing to get rid of it.

In Trump’s Washington, however, any check on power is seen as a flaw, not a feature. Eliminating the Senate filibuster now would increase his power considerably.

Once the reporters were put out of the meeting, Trump’s urging became aggressively demanding, according to several Senators who were in attendance. He turned up his bullying rhetoric and predicted that Republicans would become a “dead party” if the filibuster is allowed to remain. He also admitted that the government shutdown is “worse for us than for them,” and that Republicans “are getting killed.”

For Senate Republicans, who have been a rubber stamp for Trump — passing unpopular bills, confirming unqualified nominees, and relinquishing constitutional powers — this is the first time they may actually stand up to the president.

Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota laughed out loud when asked if he would support an end to the filibuster, according to Politico.

Thune is standing strong, at least for now, saying no to nuking the filibuster. “I just know where the math is on this issue,” he said, meaning he doesn’t have the votes. And he seems unwilling to push his caucus to get on board with this particular presidential dictate.

It now comes down to the two words no sitting president likes to hear: lame duck – the situation in which the president becomes less politically powerful and influential the closer he gets to leaving office. Historically, it happens after the midterms. But there are indications that it might begin much sooner with this administration.

If the Constitution is upheld, the most dominant Republican leader in decades will be gone in three years and will leave behind an unrecognizable Republican Party. It must figure out how to contend with life after Trump. That process is starting now, in the wake of Tuesday’s results.

“I hope Congress reclaims its voice and protects Article I authorities as a result of the recent losses. We all expected to lose these races, but the margin of victory should be a big red flag,” said Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, a Republican who is retiring and willing to speak against the administration.

At least someone at the White House is heeding the big red flag. “President Trump and his administration are laser-focused on slashing housing costs for young Americans, and every Republican in office must join this critical fight,” wrote a presidential advisor on social media on Wednesday.

Former Trump aide Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor of Ohio, posted a video after Tuesday’s trouncing, saying, “Our side needs to focus on affordability” and is urging his party to “cut out the identity politics.”

It will take more than laser focus to turn the sagging economy around. The headlines make it seem like things are humming along, but it doesn’t take much digging to discover it is not in good shape.

Although 42,000 jobs were added in October, reversing two months of negative growth, 1.1 million American jobs have been cut since the beginning of the year, the most since the pandemic. And some of the biggest job losses are in sectors that reverberate across the economy: UPS, Amazon, and Target. Debt is growing. Delinquencies are up. Fast food stocks are way off. And economists are flying blind because the Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn’t released any numbers on inflation, employment or spending since the shutdown.

Put aside the numbers for a moment and think about the optics. They have been terrible under Trump — masked agents dragging citizens through the streets, U.S. soldiers and Marines deployed against our own citizens, boats being blown out of the Caribbean and Pacific oceans by the U.S. military, media intimidation, massive enrichment of himself and his family, as more and more Americans suffer economically.

Presidents — especially this one — live in a bubble. They — especially this one — surround themselves with sycophants. We have been saying for months that a majority of Americans are deeply unhappy with what he is doing to our country. Tuesday’s losses make clear that the truth of the situation can no longer be denied by Republicans outside or inside the White House.

None of this is to say that the Trump cult can’t and won’t win future elections. But voters just threw up some roadblocks on their road to continued dominance.

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Stay Steady,
Dan