Has Trump Lost His War?
Iran looks anything but defeated, despite the spin
Let’s cut to the chase — the president’s war in Iran is One. Hot. Mess.
After a thorough review, conversations with colleagues, and extensive research, that’s about as generous as we can be.
At Steady, we always strive to bring you context and perspective. The war in Iran demands plenty of both. Understanding what’s really going on in wartime was difficult enough before Donald Trump. Now it is exasperatingly complicated by a White House, and its accompanying public relations machine, that lies at will.
Will the American people continue to hold Trump accountable for this mess? It is easy to push it to the back burner, and with the ceasefire in place, that’s exactly where Trump wants it. But last night, the president broke the ceasefire with “defensive” air strikes in southern Iran. His hoped-for quick end is again in jeopardy.
Despite what you may read or see in the coming days, the United States is not, has not, and most likely will not “win” this ill-conceived war. We don’t even know what a win is meant to look like because of Trump’s moving target objectives.
If a framework ceasefire extension is reached, prepare yourself for what will be a dizzying blitz of disinformation from the president and his propaganda allies at Fox “News,” et al. We’ve seen this act before — where objective evidence be damned, just believe Trump, because he says so.
Anyone who claims victory in this disaster is insulting your intelligence.
If — and this is a very big if — the United States can somehow return to the pre-war status quo, it would be a stunning reversal of present realities.
Significant and near irreversible damage has been done. The Middle East is forever changed because of Trump. Our allies now look upon us with suspicion at best, derision at worst. Relationships are strained to the point of breaking throughout the region and Europe. Allied trust is gone, while in Iran the regime remains in control.
Here’s one certainty: Trump would give anything to get out of this disaster, because it is weakening him politically. Tehran knows that and is prolonging the conflict as long as possible. That’s why the president is spam-posting about the war being near an end. “Proceeding nicely,” is how he keeps characterizing the peace talks.
In the meantime, the cost of Trump’s “short-term excursion” continues to balloon. The Pentagon’s last estimate in late April of $25 billion is woefully outdated.
And it turns out this war comes with a financial double whammy. Your tax dollars are funding billions in missiles, bombs and troops, while you also pay at the gas pump.
Researchers at Brown University have calculated that consumers have now paid more for the war than the government. Higher fuel prices have cost Americans $40 billion, which comes out to more than $300 per household.
“To put that figure in context, $40 billion could fund the entire federal Bridge Investment Program to repair more than 10,200 bridges nationwide, exceeds the estimated $31.5 billion cost of overhauling the U.S. air traffic control system, and is twice the $18.9 billion proposed for federal electric vehicle charging programs under the Biden administration.”
Higher fuel prices have inflated the cost of other items, like beef. Ground beef, once one of the least expensive meat options, is now coming in at seven bucks a pound and sirloin steak near $15. Those prices could jump another 18% by Christmas.
As for gas prices, they are not predicted to return to pre-war levels before late 2026, if then.
The biggest sticking point in the peace talks is the Strait of Hormuz, which was open to all ships and tankers before the war. To reopen it now, Iran is demanding money, and lots of it. The U.S. will have to hand over billions in frozen Iranian assets and end its blockade. As for Iran’s nuclear program, elimination of which was a major reason given for the war? It has been damaged, but not eliminated.
Iran looks to be very much in control, and therefore, much of the world will see this as an embarrassing if not humiliating defeat for Donald Trump. Russian and Chinese leaders are grinning.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei sounds confident. “The hands of time do not turn backward, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. “America, in addition to no longer having a safe place for aggression and military bases in the region, is moving further away from its former status day by day.”
At this juncture, Trump is trapped. He has no good options. Nonetheless, he will try to spin a win.
For the U.S. military still in the region, defending American interests regardless of politics, they and their families will continue to receive widespread public support. As they should.
As propaganda machines of various interests pour out lies and disinformation, what is a decent-intended citizen to do? Block out the noise, especially on social media, and stick with sources you trust. Thank you for trusting us.
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Stay Steady,
Dan
Yes. Absolutely. We now live in a day and age where the news from Iran is more accurate than what we get in the states. Pathetic. I wish Dan was still broadcasting.
We have all lost. Who won, Lockheed, Raytheon and the oligarchs who get richer by the minute. Thanks Mr.Rather for staying in the mix.