For the GOP, He’s a Primary Concern

An enthusiasm advantage lifts Talarico in Texas

Texas Senate candidate James Talarico and his supporters. Credit: Getty Images

The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate we were all much younger. The year was 1988. The internet was in its infancy. Cell phones weren’t yet a thing, and Lloyd Bentsen became the junior senator from Texas. In the ensuing thirty-eight years, Texas turned deep red and Republicans occupied both of the state’s Senate seats.

Now, it may be the actions of a Republican president that finally end the Democrats’ drought.

James Talarico, a 36-year-old Texas state lawmaker, won the Democratic Primary on Tuesday, defeating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. That was mildly surprising, but here’s the stunner.

In total, 100,000 more Democrats voted in the Texas primary than Republicans. Compared to the 2024 Senate primary, more than twice as many Democrats voted yesterday. That is rare in the Lone Star State. Not since 1970 have so many people voted in a Democratic midterm primary, according to CNN.

It’s safe to say Democrats in Texas are more enthusiastic than they’ve been in several election cycles. Couple that with anger, disillusionment, and just plain exhaustion with our messy political system, and you see what can happen.

Make no mistake, Texas is still a deeply red state, and flipping it will be harder than nailing Jell-O to a tree, but anger at Donald Trump over immigration, the economy, and now a war of choice is doing his party no favors. Gasoline is up nationwide by more than 20 cents a gallon this week.

As primary voters in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas went to the polls on Tuesday, Trump and his loyalists were offering different reasons for attacking Iran. His wishy-washy justifications, lack of an exit strategy, and escalating retaliation by Iran are the latest developments that may hurt Republicans’ chances of holding on to their thin majorities in Congress come November.

Trump’s inability to clearly articulate his rationale for the war is evidence that there may be another motive, one he doesn’t want to own. On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made matters worse.

Rubio said Trump chose to strike Iran because there was “an imminent threat.” He went on to explain that the U.S. acted “in a defensive way,” because ,“we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.” So, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is calling the shots?

“Rubio’s comments are a record-scratch moment. He said what most guessed was the case. That he said out loud this is a sea change in foreign policy. There will be massive calls for a walk back,” Mike Cernovich, a MAGA political commentator, wrote on social media.

Trump tried to do some of that walking back. When asked if Israel pushed him to strike first, he denied it. “If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand,” he told reporters.

At this point in most presidential terms, the president is laser-focused on the midterm elections, to either increase his party’s numbers in the House and Senate or, in Trump’s case, stem the predicted losses. But Trump doesn’t seem interested in helping his own cause. While his base is ever loyal, it is not big enough to hold onto the House or maybe even the Senate.

You would think he’d be in full-on campaign mode, stumping for candidates, selling his domestic agenda, touting affordability policy initiatives. Instead, he is starting foreign wars, snatching foreign leaders, terrorizing American cities, and dodging and suppressing anything related to the Epstein files, all while the government is partially shut down for a second time.

Texas is an indication that voters are paying attention to all the craziness, not to mention his forgotten promises.

Talarico beat Crockett by seven points. The candidates, while both progressive, offered vastly different styles: a classic campaigner who often reaches across the aisle while quoting the Bible, versus a firebrand and former public defender who has relentlessly battled the Trump administration.

“The people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope. And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing,” Talarico said early Wednesday morning.

Crockett vowed to work with Talarico to flip the Senate seat. “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track. With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win,” she said in a statement.

The Republican race was not so clear cut. The most expensive primary race in American electoral history just got more so. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn narrowly beat his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but neither got the requisite 50% to avoid a runoff.

For the next 80 days, Cornyn and Paxton will be throwing punches at each other and money at the race, all while trying to curry Trump’s favor to secure an endorsement. Trump says he will endorse one of the two and ask the other to drop out before the runoff. Meanwhile, Talarico will be waiting and watching as the Republicans tear each other apart.

One last note about Texas. Yesterday’s primary revealed more evidence that Trump’s favor with Latino voters may be fleeting. Democratic turnout in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley was up, and far larger than Republican turnout.

In North Carolina, the Senate race is set with the two expected candidates, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. It is a seat the Democrats think they can take.

What is of special interest about Tuesday’s North Carolina primary is that once again many more Democrats voted than Republicans. This time the gap was more than 200,000 votes.

One last Senate race to keep an eye on is one in Montana. On Tuesday, former Green Beret, Rhodes Scholar, and University of Montana president Seth Bodnar entered the race as an independent, saying both parties have failed the American people.

“The American Dream is getting crushed, and both parties are to blame. They pit us against each other, while they line their own pockets,” Bodnar said in a video launching his campaign. It is a shrewd strategy at a time when three-fourths of Americans polled disapprove of Congress.

Primaries tend not to be predictive of general elections. What we can take away from Tuesday is that right now Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage. Many Americans are desperate to be able to do something to stop Trump’s authoritarian takeover of the country.

“If the election were today….” Ah, but it isn’t. Anyone who has covered elections for a while learns that in politics overnight is a long time, and a week is forever. Which is to say that Democrats can be encouraged by the latest primary returns, but it would be a mistake to read too much into them.

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Stay Steady,
Dan