For The Good of The Country
Biden must make the most important decision of his career
The buzzards are circling close to President Biden’s reelection campaign as the fallout from last Thursday’s debate performance worsens. His hopes are not yet dead, but they are on life support. There are now many politicians and journalists who think Biden must decide soon if he is staying in the race or giving it up.
With calls to exit the race from within his own party, post-debate poll numbers falling, and renewed and relentless questions about his mental fitness for the job, Biden finds himself at a crossroads where no politician wants to stand.
As of this writing, he is running. “I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out. I’ve been knocked down before and counted out my whole life. When you get knocked down, you get back up,” Biden said today. Though Katie Rogers of The New York Times reported that Biden has acknowledged “he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job after a disastrous debate performance last week.”
From this reporter’s perspective, he has the weekend and maybe next week to decide if he is bowing out. Yes, he told his staff today that he is in, but that feels like a statement designed to ease jitters and calm nerves. Political losses, such as a poor debate performance, usually have a shelf-life of a few days before becoming back-page news.
The Fourth of July holiday has come at an opportune time for Biden. For the next five days, people will be grilling hamburgers, visiting with family, and watching fireworks instead of television.
But even if the electorate isn’t paying attention over the long weekend, the media will be. Biden is scheduled to be interviewed by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. The most minor of missteps will be dissected and amplified. A so-called “senior moment” could mean the end of his campaign.
Two post-debate polls paint a terrible picture for the president. He is now trailing Donald Trump by 6 points among likely voters.
At January’s State of the Union, Biden was clear and in command. So much so that Trump accused him of taking performance-enhancing drugs. Six months later, a greatly diminished Biden showed up for the first presidential debate.
“I think it’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode, or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it’s completely legitimate — of both candidates,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on MSNBC yesterday.
Changing candidates this late in the race is risky to say the least. If Biden decides not to run, Vice President Kamala Harris would start out in the lead position for successor. As vice president, she has not polled well. She is known as a shaky public speaker, though her recent campaign speeches where she has spoken passionately about reproductive rights have shown improvement. The party nominating process, in place for decades, would be turned upside-down. The possibility of a chaotic, contested convention is real. And it is only 47 days away.
Democratic strategist Donna Brazile reminds us who won the primaries and therefore should be the nominee. “Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination. To undermine the voters in this country at this hour would be the worst thing the Democratic Party could ever do.” She has a point, though I think she is overstating it.
On the plus side, Harris is the most vetted potential candidate. As a former California attorney general, a U.S. senator, and vice president, she brings the necessary experience. She would have access to Biden’s $240 million campaign war chest. She would likely be able to keep the convention civil and the delegates in line. Her recent poll numbers have risen. In a head-to-head match-up against Trump, she does better than Biden. The president has been losing support among women and African Americans. Polls suggest she could stem those losses.
At least for now, Harris is sticking by her boss. “Look, Joe Biden is our nominee,” she said yesterday. “We beat Trump once, and we’re gonna beat him, period.”
A presumptive nominee choosing to leave the race has happened once before. On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not seek reelection. This stunning declaration would lead to the contentious and violent Democratic National Convention in Chicago that I remember all too well. Eventual nominee Hubert Humphrey ended up losing a close race to Richard Nixon. Many historians point to the rancorous convention as the beginning of the end for Humphrey.
There’s another way to look at this: Biden making way for Harris could inject a much needed jolt of energy into a campaign season mired in complacency and dissatisfaction. With many in the electorate frustrated with their options, Biden could give them what they want: a new and viable candidate.
Right now, the race for president has suddenly become all about Biden. But among all this hand-wringing and prognosticating, we cannot lose sight of the most important goal: defeating Donald Trump, a convicted felon and pathological liar.
If Biden were to leave the race now, his legacy would be preserved, and he would be remembered as a patriot. He was the candidate who defeated Trump and, for the good of the nation, stepped aside when it was time, in an effort to defeat him again.
Support from our readers makes this Substack possible. If you have the means, please consider becoming a paid subscriber so we can keep most posts free for all to read, no matter their financial circumstances. Thank you.
No matter how you subscribe, I thank you for reading.
Stay Steady,
Dan
This relentless focus on Biden with barely a glance at the convicted felon, who literally lied with every breath he took on that debate stage is highly disturbing. I am 100% for the Biden-Harris ticket. There is too much at stake.
The only nominee with a campaign with hundreds of millions of dollars (non transferable) in its war chest is Biden. The only nominee to be toe to toe in favorability ratings is Biden. (Which was why he decided he had to go again.) The only nominee who has a 3.5 year record of actually extremely popular priorities and proven success in them is… Biden. Polls prove it.
Gift link here: https://wapo.st/3XGUUxc
A brokered convention after primaries that proved the ratio of voters supporting Biden were higher than those supporting Trump…
He has never been good at debates, has a lifelong stutter, and had a cold. He took cold medication and a combination of all that wasn’t great especially when the Gish gallop of lies went on. His performance improved as he went on. So. Millions of dollars, including a large portion of first time grassroots donors came in over the next few days. In other words the actual grassroots aren’t giving up on Biden.
But consider why Biden has not been able to gain traction in the press. The New York Times has been aggrieved against him. This isn’t conjecture on my part. Multiple articles exist to discuss that.
And it’s not just the press. It’s right wing billionaires like Sinclair consolidating local television stations and centralizing broadcasts and having newscasters reading slanted reporting against him. Aaron Rupar here on Substack has reporting about that.
In other words, there are more than probably good reasons why another random Democratic candidate would not do well.
You may not like it. I may not like it. It is good to consider reality.
A president does not govern alone. A president has an administration that works under them and with them. Biden has experienced staff, with very low departures from his cabinet versus other administrations. Only one has left thus far. Stability in other words.
Biden has a vice president who has been crisscrossing the country rallying support on reproductive freedom. The proportion of first time voters being women has been astronomical compared to previous periods of registration. If and when it is necessary to step in, she will, as have multiple vice presidents.
Most importantly, only one nominee has already opened hundreds of field offices, who help with a range of things before Election Day, including helping people with their voter registration. During voting, they coordinate getting people to the polls.
In other words, we have a bird in the hand.