If ever there were a time we needed steadiness, it is now.
The situation developing in Russia is as dangerous as it is volatile. There is no predicting where it might go. What we can now say with more confidence is that Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was a blunder of historic proportions. It could cost him his power and possibly his life. It has left his nation weaker, more divided, and a pariah on the world stage.
Putin has unleashed stunning pain and tragedy. They have been borne primarily by the Ukrainians, who have shown uncommon courage and resoluteness. Thankfully, the Biden administration and our allies seem to have handled the crisis smartly, with restraint and strength. We should all desperately hope such instincts continue.
What a contrast it is to the previous administration and its chorus of online cheerleaders who eagerly parroted Putin’s propaganda. Trump’s appeasement was always self-serving and never in the interests of the United States or anyone who believes in freedom, democracy, or peace. Hopefully, one day we will learn what Trump said to — or even promised — Putin when they met without aides in Helsinki.
The world is a complicated and often threatening place. History might fit into tidy chapters in textbooks, but in reality it jumps in fits and starts. It can pivot on a person or a moment. What was once taken as certainty can be shattered in an instant. We are living through one of those junctures. It is fraught. It is consequential. And it could reverberate for decades.
As we follow the news, we may want to keep in mind that much of what we initially hear will prove to be incorrect. This is no time for jumping to conclusions. Circumstances can change rapidly. And it is not clear when or how this will end.
Putin wanted to remake Russia as a fearsome counterpoint to the United States. He bet he could build a modern-day empire through fear, corruption, and meddling in the affairs of other nations. He was always a dangerous despot. And he might still endure. But his hubris reminds us that there are times aggressive behavior must be met with strength and determination, and also with intelligence and … well, steadiness. We must not sell out our noblest values. And there are times we must try to be a force of stability in a world that too often is prone to chaos.
Future generations will one day look back at this time and consider the stark contrasts between two American presidents and their different approaches to perilous geopolitical forces at home and abroad. And they will also look back at the legacy of Putin. But for us, in the here and now, we are left to watch and wonder what might happen in the hours, days, and weeks ahead. It’s a story whose ending will shape our future in ways that are unknowable but certain to be profound.
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Mr. Rather's assessment seems entirely accurate. Anyone who knows the Uncle Remus folk tale of "Br'er Rabbit & The Tarbaby" sees the parallel of Putin & Ukraine: Having unleashed his pointless, unprovoked hubris on Ukraine, stymied, Putin cannot now either disengage from it gracefully, nor defeat it militarily, as long as the US & NATO steadfastly back Ukraine as their proxy holding the Russian bear at bay. The longer Russia bleeds, the less it is an ongoing threat to the West. Putin's imperialist takeover of Crimea was provocative enough; the West got the message.
(Lest we be tempted to gloat, the USA found itself in much the same predicament in Vietnam, and again in Afghanistan: No way to win.) Leave humiliated, or drain Russia's treasury and national pride, embarrassed personally. All bad options.)
Power politics (aka war) should always be a last resort. Putin made it his first resort, with great fanfare and hubristic declarations of a victory in 30 days. It has now passed the 500-day mark. Fellow-Communist China gave him no help when he asked for it. Russia is bleeding. More than 30,000 Russian troops have died. Putin has had to hire Soldiers of Fortune to augment his remaining Russian draftees, though thousands of them fled at the start. He has fallen back on using WWII-vintage armament. Many top Russian officers have been killed. The war is stalemated. What next? American materiel but no American lives are in the fight. No prediction when Putin will run dry, but Russia is close. already falling back on using WWII-vintage tanks, ammo & vehicles. Ukraine may be his Waterloo, which pleases NATO. Russia will emerge weakened for 20 years, without gain. Ukraine will reclaim its lost territory. A net loss for Putin lies ahead. Joe Biden is smiling. So is NATO.
To STEADY creators Dan Rather and Elliott Kirschner -
I receive frequent replies on the STEADY thread that appear to be trolls or scammers, asking me to "send a mail privately" with a gmail address link.
Since I do not ever expect either of you to ask me to do such a thing, I have been skeptical and tried to report and delete these posts.
If you are noticing this is INDEED A SERIOUS PROBLEM, please advise on what steps are being taken to screen out these fake imposters, and the advice on how we should respond to them.
Thank you for your attention.