A Stage Without Trump

What to make of tonight's "debate"?

(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

The “debate” has become an essential part of presidential primary politics. But let’s start by stipulating that these are much less debates than cattle calls, side-by-side news conferences, and dances between the desperate and the defiant. 

Even at their best, these stages with enough people to field a baseball team are not venues for carefully teasing out the nuances of a candidate’s policy positions or contextualizing the sweep of world events. They’re meant to allow primary voters to see new faces and judge candidates they may like, they may dislike, or,  as is often the case in these early venues, candidates with whom they’re entirely unfamiliar. 

These are made-for-TV events where the point is to land a metaphorical punch (for those low in the polls) and avoid getting hit in the face (for the leaders). In these days of social media and memes, campaigns hope their standard-bearer can get something they say to go viral — in a good way. They fear trending for the wrong reasons. 

With this as context, the Republican “debate” that will take place in Milwaukee tonight could be particularly strange and is a striking symbol of where the party is at this moment. As most of you likely know, the drama began days ago, when Donald Trump, the overwhelming favorite at this point to win the party’s nomination, decided to skip the event. And more than that, he decided to do his own counter-programming — a move right out of the world of reality television, where he always seemed the most at home. 

While all those who seek to deny him the nomination fight with each other and with their own anonymity or poor standing with Republican voters on Fox News, Trump will be on X (formerly known as Twitter, and currently owned by Elon Musk) with a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson, who had been fired from Fox News. Trump, Twitter, Musk, Carlson, and Fox News — could there be a more fitting list of characters for the swirling winds of Republican politics? 

At the center of it all is, of course, Trump. It is clear he maintains almost full control over the party that, at this point, looks like it will coronate him once again. He’s always been one to boast about, and often lie about, ratings. It will be interesting to see how many tune into Fox News without him on the stage. And it will be interesting to see how his talk with Tucker plays. 

This of course leaves a quandary for the candidates in Milwaukee. Each is desperate to emerge as the alternative to Trump — a role that once seemed likely to be assumed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but he seems to be melting faster than a popsicle in this summer’s heat. Can he reinvent his narrative? Can someone else emerge with momentum? It will probably take a lot more than the few minutes each will get to speak on a cable TV event in August. 

One struggle these candidates will have is that Trump remains very, very popular with Republican voters. And he won’t be there to provide an in-person target. So if they try to go after him, which they need to do in some way to differentiate themselves, it will be sort of like trying to wrestle with an apparition — and one most of the voters in the crowd (and on TV) wish were there instead of the candidates who actually are. 

That this comes in the wake of Trump’s fourth indictment and on the eve of his turning himself in for booking in Georgia only adds to the surreal nature of this event. In the echo chamber that is Republican politics, none of that matters. Trump is the triumphant hero who didn’t lose in 2020 (not sure what to make of his preferred candidates losing in 2022). His legal woes are all the "deep state" trying to take him down, the politicization of justice, the persecution of free speech. Polls show that the majority of the population sees these cases very differently in ways that could spell doom for Trump as a nominee. But little of that mindset seems to have punctured the Republican bubble. Candidates like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who are warning of doom, are getting less traction than bald tires on black ice. 

Can the contours of this race change? Anything can happen, and we have a long way to go. But at this point Trump seems to be in control. We are 20 weeks away from the Iowa Caucuses. Will Trump still be riding high? Will the court cases take their toll? Will somebody break through to challenge him? Will it start tonight? 

As usual, there are more questions than answers at this point in the campaign. 

But let’s end with one more: Will you be watching tonight? 

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