2024 and the Future of American Democracy

Image Credit: Tuomas A. Lehtinen

A year ends. A new one begins. 

What will 2024 be like? One of the only certainties about life is that it is filled with uncertainty. 

As Benjamin Franklin famously quipped (in a phrase he popularized but didn’t coin), “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” It’s a quote you hear a lot, and for good reason. Its humor is rooted in its truth. 

But there is more to that quote, and to the story behind it, that makes it particularly relevant in our current historical moment. 

The quote is actually a translation from a letter Franklin wrote in French to a friend, the physicist Jean-Baptiste Le Roy, in 1789. These were frightening times in France. The revolution had begun, and Franklin started his letter by wondering if his friend was still alive (he was). 

As for the quote itself, the part everyone remembers today is actually the second half of a longer thought. Franklin wasn’t musing on “certainty” in an abstract sense. Rather, he had a very specific concern in mind — one timely then, and timely today: the continuation of the United States as a democratic republic.

Because, while 1789 marked the beginning of the French Revolution, one could also say it represented the culmination of the American Revolution. It was the year the Constitution was adopted as the law of the land. And this brings us to the full context of Franklin’s “death and taxes” quote. 

He wrote, “Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” 

The certainty Franklin worried about, and for good reason, was the certainty that the United States would endure. Think about all that is in the phrase he uses to frame the precariousness of our constitutional order — “an appearance that promises permanency.” Is there a better formulation for the uncertainty we face today? Franklin died five months after writing the letter, well aware of the uncertainties of both life and democracy. 

Almost 74 years to the day after Franklin wrote his letter, another great American statesman, Abraham Lincoln, addressed a crowd at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. He had a concern similar to that of Franklin, wondering whether “a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal ... can long endure.”

Today, we are sadly at another such inflection point. What lies before us in the year ahead is the very question that vexed Franklin, Lincoln, and many other national leaders — the endurance of our republic. 

The grand temples to our democracy in Washington — the majestic Capitol dome, the imposing Supreme Court chamber, the manicured grounds of the White House — are meant to evoke a sense of permanence with the populace. But these are all just buildings. Whether we can long endure is up to us. 

It is vital that we remember that both Franklin and Lincoln were not passive commentators, like some talking heads on cable television wringing their hands about the fate of the future. One would be hard-pressed to find two people who did more, and gave more of themselves, in service to our country. 

They knew that because democracy is precarious, they had to do all they could to keep it as permanent as possible. As another American statesman, the late George Shultz, had emblazoned on his favorite necktie: “Democracy is not a spectator sport.”

Death and taxes may be all that is certain, but that doesn’t mean we are powerless to shape the future. Quite the contrary. Each generation must answer the call. And history teaches us a hopeful lesson: Democracy can not only endure, it can improve. 

Both Franklin and Lincoln left this country far better because of their exertions. So did countless others. Some of these leaders are famous, but most who worked hard and sacrificed to make this country better will never appear in history books. That doesn’t mean their contributions were any less valuable. 

The United States is entering a year when service to the cause of democracy is desperately needed once more. A former president seeks to destroy the very Constitution he swore to uphold. The threat is real. But so is the opportunity to once again defeat forces that would end America’s often painful and circuitous path toward a more perfect union. 

Wishing everyone in the Steady community a healthy and happy New Year. 

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